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Happy Valley · 2025-12-23 · 12:45

Race 5

Class 4 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-23 was Class 4 over 1200m. CALIFORNIA BLITZ, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W K Mo, won, with GOOD LUCK HAPPY second and KNOW AT HEART third. The 3.9 favourite SONIC PURSUIT finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1:09.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CALIFORNIA BLITZ 1:09.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W K Mo 9 6.4
2 4 GOOD LUCK HAPPY Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 16.0 HD
3 11 KNOW AT HEART H Doyle · W Y So 3 4.8 1/2
4 10 GOLDEN BRILLIANT D Probert · C Fownes 7 47.0 1-1/4
5 7 YEE CHEONG SPIRIT Z Purton · C S Shum 1 6.1 2-1/4
6 2 FATAL BLOW L Ferraris · M Newnham 10 8.8 2-3/4
7 6 WINNING NOW C L Chau · F C Lor 4 7.7 3
8 5 PRECISION HOPE H Bentley · D A Hayes 2 47.0 3-3/4
9 1 BIGTIME GENERATION E C W Wong · P F Yiu 11 68.0 3-3/4
10 9 CALL TO COMMAND M L Yeung · C W Chang 8 17.0 4
11 12 SONIC PURSUIT A Atzeni · J Richards 6 3.9 4-1/2
12 8 ZHOU GONGJIN K Teetan · B Crawford 12 78.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIA BLITZ2. GOOD LUCK HAPPY+0.2L3. KNOW AT HEART+0.5L4. GOLDEN BRILLIANT+1.25L5. YEE CHEONG SPIRIT+2.25L6. FATAL BLOW+2.75L7. WINNING NOW+3L8. PRECISION HOPE+3.75L9. BIGTIME GENERATION+3.75L10. CALL TO COMMAND+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick KNOW AT HEART (28.6%) finished 3rd — the winner CALIFORNIA BLITZ was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 KNOW AT HEART 28.6% 3.49 3
2 7 YEE CHEONG SPIRIT 15.4% 6.48 5
3 12 SONIC PURSUIT 14.0% 7.15 11
4 4 GOOD LUCK HAPPY 11.5% 8.67 2
5 3 CALIFORNIA BLITZ 8.3% 11.98 1
6 6 WINNING NOW 6.7% 14.85 7
7 2 FATAL BLOW 5.1% 19.55 6
8 9 CALL TO COMMAND 3.2% 31.11 10
9 5 PRECISION HOPE 2.9% 34.54 8
10 8 ZHOU GONGJIN 1.5% 68.15 12
11 1 BIGTIME GENERATION 1.4% 71.14 9
12 10 GOLDEN BRILLIANT 1.2% 81.43 4
KNOW AT HEARTYEE CHEONG SPIRITSONIC PURSUITGOOD LUCK HAPPYCALIFORNIA BLITZ — wonWINNING NOWFATAL BLOWCALL TO COMMANDPRECISION HOPEZHOU GONGJINBIGTIME GENERATIONGOLDEN BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 64

PLACE

3 21

4 45.5

11 16.5

QUINELLA

3,4 534

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 165

3,11 48

4,11 135

FORECAST

3,4 1,119

TIERCE

3,4,11 4,508

TRIO

3,4,11 604

FIRST 4

3,4,10,11 6,337

QUARTET

3,4,11,10 154,835

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

2/1/3 2,259

2/1/4 1,218

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,8/3,4,11 18,918

4TH DOUBLE

1/3 544

1/4 134.5