Happy Valley · 2025-12-23 · 12:45
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-23 was Class 4 over 1200m. CALIFORNIA BLITZ, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W K Mo, won, with GOOD LUCK HAPPY second and KNOW AT HEART third. The 3.9 favourite SONIC PURSUIT finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CALIFORNIA BLITZ 1:09.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 9 | 6.4 | — |
| 2 | 4 | GOOD LUCK HAPPY Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 5 | 16.0 | HD |
| 3 | 11 | KNOW AT HEART H Doyle · W Y So | H Doyle | W Y So | 3 | 4.8 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | GOLDEN BRILLIANT D Probert · C Fownes | D Probert | C Fownes | 7 | 47.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | YEE CHEONG SPIRIT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 6.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | FATAL BLOW L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 10 | 8.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | WINNING NOW C L Chau · F C Lor | C L Chau | F C Lor | 4 | 7.7 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | PRECISION HOPE H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 2 | 47.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | BIGTIME GENERATION E C W Wong · P F Yiu | E C W Wong | P F Yiu | 11 | 68.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | CALL TO COMMAND M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 8 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 12 | SONIC PURSUIT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 6 | 3.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | ZHOU GONGJIN K Teetan · B Crawford | K Teetan | B Crawford | 12 | 78.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | KNOW AT HEART | 28.6% | 3.49 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | YEE CHEONG SPIRIT | 15.4% | 6.48 | 5 |
| 3 | 12 | SONIC PURSUIT | 14.0% | 7.15 | 11 |
| 4 | 4 | GOOD LUCK HAPPY | 11.5% | 8.67 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | CALIFORNIA BLITZ | 8.3% | 11.98 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | WINNING NOW | 6.7% | 14.85 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | FATAL BLOW | 5.1% | 19.55 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | CALL TO COMMAND | 3.2% | 31.11 | 10 |
| 9 | 5 | PRECISION HOPE | 2.9% | 34.54 | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | ZHOU GONGJIN | 1.5% | 68.15 | 12 |
| 11 | 1 | BIGTIME GENERATION | 1.4% | 71.14 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | GOLDEN BRILLIANT | 1.2% | 81.43 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 64
PLACE
3 21
4 45.5
11 16.5
QUINELLA
3,4 534
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 165
3,11 48
4,11 135
FORECAST
3,4 1,119
TIERCE
3,4,11 4,508
TRIO
3,4,11 604
FIRST 4
3,4,10,11 6,337
QUARTET
3,4,11,10 154,835
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
2/1/3 2,259
2/1/4 1,218
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,8/3,4,11 18,918
4TH DOUBLE
1/3 544
1/4 134.5