Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2025-12-23 · 13:15

Race 6

Class 3 2200m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-23 was Class 3 over 2200m. THE AUSPICIOUS, ridden by M Guyon and trained by Y S Tsui, won, with LIVEANDLETLIVE second and MONEY CATCHER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 2:15.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 THE AUSPICIOUS Closed strongly 2:15.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Guyon · Y S Tsui 1 4.1
2 3 LIVEANDLETLIVE Led early M Chadwick · A S Cruz 4 6.8 NOSE
3 11 MONEY CATCHER Closed strongly H Doyle · F C Lor 9 13.0 1-1/2
4 4 SNOWFIELD Closed strongly A Atzeni · M Newnham 2 6.0 1-3/4
5 6 ENTHRALLED Z Purton · J Size 3 7.7 2
6 10 AGENDA K Teetan · D J Hall 5 8.8 3
7 9 AESTHETICISM M F Poon · P C Ng 6 42.0 3-1/4
8 7 STURDY RUBY Closed strongly C Y Ho · K L Man 10 54.0 6-1/4
9 2 WROTE A NEW PAGE H Bentley · C S Shum 8 10.0 8
10 5 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly J Orman · P C Ng 12 26.0 8-1/2
11 1 ROMANTIC THOR H Bowman · C S Shum 11 13.0 10-3/4
12 8 CHARITY GAIN L Hewitson · D Eustace 7 11.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE AUSPICIOUS2. LIVEANDLETLIVE+0.05L3. MONEY CATCHER+1.5L4. SNOWFIELD+1.75L5. ENTHRALLED+2L6. AGENDA+3L7. AESTHETICISM+3.25L8. STURDY RUBY+6.25L9. WROTE A NEW PAGE+8L10. TURIN MASCOT+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick LIVEANDLETLIVE (20.4%) finished 2nd — the winner THE AUSPICIOUS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LIVEANDLETLIVE 20.4% 4.90 2
2 6 ENTHRALLED 19.4% 5.15 5
3 12 THE AUSPICIOUS 13.0% 7.67 1
4 2 WROTE A NEW PAGE 10.2% 9.81 9
5 4 SNOWFIELD 8.9% 11.30 4
6 8 CHARITY GAIN 7.0% 14.34 12
7 1 ROMANTIC THOR 5.3% 19.03 11
8 10 AGENDA 4.3% 23.43 6
9 7 STURDY RUBY 4.0% 25.00 8
10 5 TURIN MASCOT 3.1% 31.83 10
11 11 MONEY CATCHER 2.5% 39.78 3
12 9 AESTHETICISM 1.9% 51.48 7
LIVEANDLETLIVEENTHRALLEDTHE AUSPICIOUS — wonWROTE A NEW PAGESNOWFIELDCHARITY GAINROMANTIC THORAGENDASTURDY RUBYTURIN MASCOTMONEY CATCHERAESTHETICISM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 41

PLACE

3 24

11 39.5

12 17.5

QUINELLA

3,12 179

QUINELLA PLACE

3,11 166.5

3,12 66.5

11,12 97

FORECAST

12,3 316

TIERCE

12,3,11 3,279

TRIO

3,11,12 726

FIRST 4

3,4,11,12 785

QUARTET

12,3,11,4 18,248

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

3/3 51.5

3/12 359