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Happy Valley · 2025-12-23 · 12:15

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-23 was Class 4 over 1200m. SUGAR SUGAR, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C Fownes, won, with GIANT BALLON second and WINNING MONEY third. The 2.3 favourite WINNING MONEY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1:09.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SUGAR SUGAR 1:09.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C Fownes 4 4.7
2 4 GIANT BALLON L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 18.0 1/2
3 8 WINNING MONEY Z Purton · K W Lui 9 2.3 3/4
4 10 GOLDEN LUCK H Doyle · K L Man 5 9.3 1-3/4
5 6 LAKESHORE HERO A Atzeni · D J Hall 12 15.0 2-1/2
6 2 VICTOR THE RAPID M Guyon · P C Ng 10 11.0 3
7 12 SPEEDY TRIDENT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 6 44.0 3-1/2
8 11 WINNING CIGAR L Ferraris · D A Hayes 7 67.0 3-3/4
9 3 LEAN MASTER H Bentley · C H Yip 3 26.0 3-3/4
10 9 HEROIC MASTER B Avdulla · F C Lor 11 38.0 4-3/4
11 5 GIDDY UP M L Yeung · J Richards 1 7.5 8
12 7 ONE LOVE K Teetan · J Size 2 45.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUGAR SUGAR2. GIANT BALLON+0.5L3. WINNING MONEY+0.75L4. GOLDEN LUCK+1.75L5. LAKESHORE HERO+2.5L6. VICTOR THE RAPID+3L7. SPEEDY TRIDENT+3.5L8. WINNING CIGAR+3.75L9. LEAN MASTER+3.75L10. HEROIC MASTER+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick WINNING MONEY (29.8%) finished 3rd — the winner SUGAR SUGAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 WINNING MONEY 29.8% 3.36 3
2 10 GOLDEN LUCK 14.7% 6.82 4
3 1 SUGAR SUGAR 9.2% 10.89 1
4 2 VICTOR THE RAPID 8.8% 11.31 6
5 5 GIDDY UP 8.2% 12.27 11
6 3 LEAN MASTER 7.3% 13.62 9
7 6 LAKESHORE HERO 5.9% 17.08 5
8 4 GIANT BALLON 5.1% 19.76 2
9 7 ONE LOVE 4.2% 23.57 12
10 9 HEROIC MASTER 2.9% 34.92 10
11 12 SPEEDY TRIDENT 2.9% 34.92 7
12 11 WINNING CIGAR 1.2% 84.88 8
WINNING MONEYGOLDEN LUCKSUGAR SUGAR — wonVICTOR THE RAPIDGIDDY UPLEAN MASTERLAKESHORE HEROGIANT BALLONONE LOVEHEROIC MASTERSPEEDY TRIDENTWINNING CIGAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 47

PLACE

1 16.5

4 47.5

8 13

QUINELLA

1,4 711.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 172

1,8 25

4,8 110.5

FORECAST

1,4 975

TIERCE

1,4,8 4,025

TRIO

1,4,8 444

FIRST 4

1,4,8,10 591

QUARTET

1,4,8,10 18,082

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

2/1 535.5

2/4 237.5