Happy Valley · 2025-12-23 · 11:45
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2025-12-23 was Class 4 over 1650m. QUANTUM PATCH, ridden by M Guyon and trained by P C Ng, won, with SHINKANSEN second and OUR LUCKY GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite QUICK CONTRIBUTION finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | QUANTUM PATCH Closed strongly 1:40.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Guyon · P C Ng | M Guyon | P C Ng | 10 | 9.0 | — |
| 2 | 12 | SHINKANSEN Closed strongly L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 7 | 21.0 | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | OUR LUCKY GLORY Closed strongly L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 9 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | QUICK CONTRIBUTION Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 1 | 2.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | SHANGHAI STYLE H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 5 | 22.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | WINNING DATA K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 3 | 9.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | CELTIC TIMES Closed strongly C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 8 | 34.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | RAGGA BOMB E C W Wong · D Eustace | E C W Wong | D Eustace | 2 | 4.6 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | THE AZURE J Orman · F C Lor | J Orman | F C Lor | 4 | 12.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 9 | WORLD HERO Led early H Doyle · D A Hayes | H Doyle | D A Hayes | 11 | 16.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | GOOD GOOD B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 6 | 16.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | JUSTIFY YOURSELF C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 12 | 88.0 | 11-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | QUICK CONTRIBUTION | 24.3% | 4.11 | 4 |
| 2 | 6 | RAGGA BOMB | 22.9% | 4.36 | 8 |
| 3 | 3 | THE AZURE | 8.0% | 12.52 | 9 |
| 4 | 2 | QUANTUM PATCH | 8.0% | 12.55 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | SHANGHAI STYLE | 7.4% | 13.60 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | WINNING DATA | 6.2% | 16.25 | 6 |
| 7 | 4 | GOOD GOOD | 5.4% | 18.56 | 11 |
| 8 | 11 | OUR LUCKY GLORY | 4.8% | 20.80 | 3 |
| 9 | 12 | SHINKANSEN | 4.5% | 22.36 | 2 |
| 10 | 7 | CELTIC TIMES | 3.8% | 26.39 | 7 |
| 11 | 9 | WORLD HERO | 3.8% | 26.51 | 10 |
| 12 | 5 | JUSTIFY YOURSELF | 1.1% | 94.55 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 90.5
PLACE
2 29
11 38
12 53
QUINELLA
2,12 1,024.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,11 129.5
2,12 271
11,12 224
FORECAST
2,12 1,826
TIERCE
2,12,11 10,606
TRIO
2,11,12 1,419
FIRST 4
2,10,11,12 1,313
QUARTET
2,12,11,10 43,106
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,7,11/2,11,12 254,670
2ND DOUBLE
7/2 569.5
7/12 213.5