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Sha Tin · 2026-02-19 · 13:30

LUCKY STAR HANDICAP

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course A 14 runners
Track detail & race-day changes (3)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #4 FLOOF — Code 96 #4 FLOOF — Jockey Change #4 FLOOF — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:35.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FLYING BOOM Closed strongly XB1/TT- 1:35.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C W Chang 3 9.9 —
2 6 GLORIOUS SUCCESS Closed strongly TT C L Chau · D Eustace 1 12.0 SH
3 13 SMILING FALCON Closed strongly CP R Kingscote · K H Ting 4 14.0 1/2
4 3 MASTER TRILLION Closed strongly B- K C Leung · F C Lor 2 21.0 3/4
5 7 VICTOR SUPREME Closed strongly V D B McMonagle · P F Yiu 7 10.0 1-1/4
6 14 DASHING MAURISON Closed strongly CP H Bentley · D A Hayes 9 7.1 1-1/2
7 5 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B/TT J Orman · C S Shum 6 14.0 2-1/4
8 9 TIME TO FIRE CP Z Purton · D J Hall 13 5.7 2-1/2
9 11 PING HAI COMET Led early H K Teetan · J Size 11 30.0 3-1/4
10 2 COLOURFUL GAN CP-/B2 B Avdulla · D J Whyte 8 109.0 3-3/4
11 4 FLOOF M L Yeung · B Crawford 5 23.0 4-3/4
12 1 BUCEPHALAS XB/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 12 8.7 5-1/2
13 12 GLORIASTAR L Ferraris · M Newnham 10 5.4 6-1/4
14 8 PEARL OF PANG'S B/TT A Atzeni · K L Man 14 18.0 30-1/2
— 0 WINNING DIAMOND · C H Yip — — —
— 4 FORZA TORO TT H Bowman · C Fownes 5 — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 ("LUCKY STAR HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-02-19 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. FLYING BOOM, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C W Chang, won, with GLORIOUS SUCCESS second and SMILING FALCON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.4 favourite GLORIASTAR finished 13th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING BOOM—2. GLORIOUS SUCCESS+0.1L3. SMILING FALCON+0.5L4. MASTER TRILLION+0.75L5. VICTOR SUPREME+1.25L6. DASHING MAURISON+1.5L7. FOREVER FOLKS+2.25L8. TIME TO FIRE+2.5L9. PING HAI COMET+3.25L10. COLOURFUL GAN+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick TIME TO FIRE (15.2%) finished 8th — the winner FLYING BOOM was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 TIME TO FIRE 15.2% 6.56 8
2 6 GLORIOUS SUCCESS 12.2% 8.22 2
3 5 FOREVER FOLKS 11.1% 8.99 7
4 12 GLORIASTAR 8.4% 11.84 13
5 7 VICTOR SUPREME 7.9% 12.66 5
6 10 FLYING BOOM 7.7% 12.94 1
7 14 DASHING MAURISON 7.5% 13.35 6
8 1 BUCEPHALAS 6.7% 14.91 12
9 13 SMILING FALCON 5.3% 18.70 3
10 11 PING HAI COMET 4.8% 20.68 9
11 8 PEARL OF PANG'S 4.2% 23.68 14
12 3 MASTER TRILLION 3.8% 26.44 4
13 4 FLOOF 3.4% 29.37 11
14 2 COLOURFUL GAN 1.6% 62.13 10
TIME TO FIREGLORIOUS SUCCESSFOREVER FOLKSGLORIASTARVICTOR SUPREMEFLYING BOOM — wonDASHING MAURISONBUCEPHALASSMILING FALCONPING HAI COMETPEARL OF PANG'SMASTER TRILLIONFLOOFCOLOURFUL GAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 99

PLACE

6 41.5

10 29

13 44.5

QUINELLA

6,10 497

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 165

6,13 260

10,13 210.5

FORECAST

10,6 947

TIERCE

10,6,13 8,785

TRIO

6,10,13 1,874

FIRST 4

3,6,10,13 5,633

QUARTET

10,6,13,3 111,843

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,14/6,10,13 173,465

2ND DOUBLE

6/6 337

6/10 1,982.5