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Sha Tin · 2026-02-19 · 05:30

LUCKY STAR HANDICAP

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 ("LUCKY STAR HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-02-19 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. FLYING BOOM, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C W Chang, won, with GLORIOUS SUCCESS second and SMILING FALCON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.4 favourite GLORIASTAR finished 13th.

Track detail & race-day changes (3)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #4 FLOOF — Code 96 #4 FLOOF — Jockey Change #4 FLOOF — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:35.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FLYING BOOM Closed strongly XB1/TT- 1:35.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C W Chang 3 9.9
2 6 GLORIOUS SUCCESS Closed strongly TT C L Chau · D Eustace 1 12.0 SH
3 13 SMILING FALCON Closed strongly CP R Kingscote · K H Ting 4 14.0 1/2
4 3 MASTER TRILLION Closed strongly B- K C Leung · F C Lor 2 21.0 3/4
5 7 VICTOR SUPREME Closed strongly V D B McMonagle · P F Yiu 7 10.0 1-1/4
6 14 DASHING MAURISON Closed strongly CP H Bentley · D A Hayes 9 7.1 1-1/2
7 5 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B/TT J Orman · C S Shum 6 14.0 2-1/4
8 9 TIME TO FIRE CP Z Purton · D J Hall 13 5.7 2-1/2
9 11 PING HAI COMET Led early H K Teetan · J Size 11 30.0 3-1/4
10 2 COLOURFUL GAN CP-/B2 B Avdulla · D J Whyte 8 109.0 3-3/4
11 4 FLOOF M L Yeung · B Crawford 5 23.0 4-3/4
12 1 BUCEPHALAS XB/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 12 8.7 5-1/2
13 12 GLORIASTAR L Ferraris · M Newnham 10 5.4 6-1/4
14 8 PEARL OF PANG'S B/TT A Atzeni · K L Man 14 18.0 30-1/2
0 WINNING DIAMOND · C H Yip
4 FORZA TORO TT H Bowman · C Fownes 5

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING BOOM2. GLORIOUS SUCCESS+0.1L3. SMILING FALCON+0.5L4. MASTER TRILLION+0.75L5. VICTOR SUPREME+1.25L6. DASHING MAURISON+1.5L7. FOREVER FOLKS+2.25L8. TIME TO FIRE+2.5L9. PING HAI COMET+3.25L10. COLOURFUL GAN+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick TIME TO FIRE (15.2%) finished 8th — the winner FLYING BOOM was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 TIME TO FIRE 15.2% 6.56 8
2 6 GLORIOUS SUCCESS 12.2% 8.22 2
3 5 FOREVER FOLKS 11.1% 8.99 7
4 12 GLORIASTAR 8.4% 11.84 13
5 7 VICTOR SUPREME 7.9% 12.66 5
6 10 FLYING BOOM 7.7% 12.94 1
7 14 DASHING MAURISON 7.5% 13.35 6
8 1 BUCEPHALAS 6.7% 14.91 12
9 13 SMILING FALCON 5.3% 18.70 3
10 11 PING HAI COMET 4.8% 20.68 9
11 8 PEARL OF PANG'S 4.2% 23.68 14
12 3 MASTER TRILLION 3.8% 26.44 4
13 4 FLOOF 3.4% 29.37 11
14 2 COLOURFUL GAN 1.6% 62.13 10
TIME TO FIREGLORIOUS SUCCESSFOREVER FOLKSGLORIASTARVICTOR SUPREMEFLYING BOOM — wonDASHING MAURISONBUCEPHALASSMILING FALCONPING HAI COMETPEARL OF PANG'SMASTER TRILLIONFLOOFCOLOURFUL GAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 99

PLACE

6 41.5

10 29

13 44.5

QUINELLA

6,10 497

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 165

6,13 260

10,13 210.5

FORECAST

10,6 947

TIERCE

10,6,13 8,785

TRIO

6,10,13 1,874

FIRST 4

3,6,10,13 5,633

QUARTET

10,6,13,3 111,843

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,14/6,10,13 173,465

2ND DOUBLE

6/6 337

6/10 1,982.5