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Sha Tin · 2026-02-19 · 06:00

FAT CHOI HANDICAP

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 ("FAT CHOI HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-02-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BABY SAKURA, ridden by J Orman and trained by K W Lui, won, with ELITE GOLF second and RUSSET GLOW third. The 3.2 favourite BETTER AND BETTER finished 4th.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998

Result

Official · 1:09.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 BABY SAKURA TT1 1:09.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · K W Lui 11 6.0
2 1 ELITE GOLF H Bentley · W Y So 14 6.5 1-3/4
3 9 RUSSET GLOW TT L Hewitson · M Newnham 1 77.0 3
4 14 BETTER AND BETTER H/P1/TT M Guyon · F C Lor 7 3.2 3-1/4
5 11 SKY PHOENIX K Teetan · B Crawford 6 142.0 4-3/4
6 13 SO MY FOLKS CP/XB/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 9 20.0 5-1/4
7 12 KIAMA E-/P-/H1 D B McMonagle · J Size 3 16.0 5-3/4
8 10 SWEET BRIAR V/TT R Kingscote · K H Ting 2 71.0 6-1/2
9 4 MASTER PHOENIX B C Y Ho · D Eustace 8 15.0 6-3/4
10 8 QUICK MONEY XB/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 13 77.0 9-1/4
11 3 NOVA KNIGHT CP-/B1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 12 39.0 9-1/4
12 2 ETERNAL RICHNESS A Atzeni · P C Ng 5 139.0 10-1/4
13 6 GOOD LUCK HAPPY TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 10 3.7 10-1/4
14 5 SUPERB BOY TT H Bowman · Y S Tsui 4 16.0 11-1/4
0 HEALTHY PONY H1 · C W Chang
0 PRIDE BELIEVER · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BABY SAKURA2. ELITE GOLF+1.75L3. RUSSET GLOW+3L4. BETTER AND BETTER+3.25L5. SKY PHOENIX+4.75L6. SO MY FOLKS+5.25L7. KIAMA+5.75L8. SWEET BRIAR+6.5L9. MASTER PHOENIX+6.75L10. QUICK MONEY+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick GOOD LUCK HAPPY (32.0%) finished 13th — the winner BABY SAKURA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 GOOD LUCK HAPPY 32.0% 3.13 13
2 7 BABY SAKURA 12.3% 8.11 1
3 14 BETTER AND BETTER 10.3% 9.72 4
4 4 MASTER PHOENIX 9.6% 10.42 9
5 12 KIAMA 7.7% 13.03 7
6 1 ELITE GOLF 6.9% 14.53 2
7 5 SUPERB BOY 4.2% 23.69 14
8 9 RUSSET GLOW 4.0% 24.95 3
9 13 SO MY FOLKS 3.9% 25.73 6
10 8 QUICK MONEY 3.0% 33.26 10
11 10 SWEET BRIAR 2.1% 47.40 8
12 11 SKY PHOENIX 1.5% 65.49 5
13 2 ETERNAL RICHNESS 1.3% 77.48 12
14 3 NOVA KNIGHT 1.2% 81.40 11
GOOD LUCK HAPPYBABY SAKURA — wonBETTER AND BETTERMASTER PHOENIXKIAMAELITE GOLFSUPERB BOYRUSSET GLOWSO MY FOLKSQUICK MONEYSWEET BRIARSKY PHOENIXETERNAL RICHNESSNOVA KNIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 60

PLACE

1 21

7 25.5

9 133.5

QUINELLA

1,7 200

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 72.5

1,9 432

7,9 442.5

FORECAST

7,1 398

TIERCE

7,1,9 13,700

TRIO

1,7,9 3,192

FIRST 4

1,7,9,14 2,310

QUARTET

7,1,9,14 65,760

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

10/1 168.5

10/7 460.5