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Happy Valley · 2026-03-04 · 10:40

KWOON CHUNG MOTORS HANDICAP

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO YIELDING 1800m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 ("KWOON CHUNG MOTORS HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-03-04 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. SUPER SICARIO, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won, with ALL ARE MINE second and PERFECT PAIRING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.73

Result

Official · 1:49.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SUPER SICARIO Closed strongly 1:49.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 5 4.2
2 9 ALL ARE MINE Closed strongly H/XB A Badel · B Crawford 9 8.4 1
3 5 PERFECT PAIRING Closed strongly B A Atzeni · J Size 11 26.0 1-1/4
4 3 CONSPIRACY WITNESS Closed strongly TT D B McMonagle · D A Hayes 2 11.0 1-1/2
5 2 ON THE LASH B/TT E C W Wong · P C Ng 7 33.0 2-1/4
6 12 DRAGON SUNRISE P/XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 12 10.0 2-3/4
7 10 JOLLY JUMPER Led early BO/SR/TT M F Poon · W K Mo 6 8.2 3
8 4 HAILTOTHEVICTORS TT C L Chau · D Eustace 3 5.5 3-1/2
9 6 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT Closed strongly B-/V2/TT R Kingscote · P F Yiu 10 16.0 3-3/4
10 1 KASA PAPA TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 4 5.4 5
11 8 SMILING EMPEROR V/XB L Ferraris · K H Ting 1 22.0 5
12 11 PERPETUAL POWER CP/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 8 103.0 19
0 SUPER HONG KONG B/TT · C H Yip
0 CARRYON SMILING TT · W Y So

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER SICARIO2. ALL ARE MINE+1L3. PERFECT PAIRING+1.25L4. CONSPIRACY WITNESS+1.5L5. ON THE LASH+2.25L6. DRAGON SUNRISE+2.75L7. JOLLY JUMPER+3L8. HAILTOTHEVICTORS+3.5L9. ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT+3.75L10. KASA PAPA+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick SUPER SICARIO (18.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SUPER SICARIO 18.4% 5.43 1
2 1 KASA PAPA 13.9% 7.21 10
3 8 SMILING EMPEROR 12.8% 7.81 11
4 4 HAILTOTHEVICTORS 11.1% 8.99 8
5 3 CONSPIRACY WITNESS 8.9% 11.21 4
6 9 ALL ARE MINE 8.0% 12.45 2
7 5 PERFECT PAIRING 6.5% 15.30 3
8 12 DRAGON SUNRISE 5.8% 17.36 6
9 10 JOLLY JUMPER 4.9% 20.48 7
10 2 ON THE LASH 4.7% 21.08 5
11 6 ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT 3.4% 29.09 9
12 11 PERPETUAL POWER 1.5% 67.45 12
SUPER SICARIO — wonKASA PAPASMILING EMPERORHAILTOTHEVICTORSCONSPIRACY WITNESSALL ARE MINEPERFECT PAIRINGDRAGON SUNRISEJOLLY JUMPERON THE LASHROSEWOOD FLEETFOOTPERPETUAL POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 42.5

PLACE

5 68

7 17.5

9 26

QUINELLA

7,9 167.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 251.5

5,9 328

7,9 62

FORECAST

7,9 303

TIERCE

7,9,5 5,540

TRIO

5,7,9 1,372

FIRST 4

3,5,7,9 2,587

QUARTET

7,9,5,3 48,588