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Happy Valley · 2026-03-04 · 19:40

TRANS-ISLAND CHINALINK HANDICAP

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course C 12 runners
Track detail & race-day changes (4)
Penetrometer 2.73 #6 ACE WAR — Code 96 #6 ACE WAR — Jockey Change #6 ACE WAR — Weight Change #9 SMART CITY — Weight Change

Result

Official · 2:16.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 ACE WAR Closed strongly XB2/TT- 2:16.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · M Newnham 12 2.8 —
2 11 STAR BROSE Closed strongly B-/CP2/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 8 5.3 2
3 3 DOUBLE WIN Closed strongly V/XB/TT D B McMonagle · K L Man 1 8.4 2-1/2
4 9 SMART CITY Led early CP/XB C L Chau · P F Yiu 2 15.0 3-3/4
5 4 SHARPEN BRIGHT B M F Poon · Y S Tsui 3 16.0 4-3/4
6 5 SURE JOYFUL Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 6 52.0 4-3/4
7 2 SERANGOON Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 11 12.0 5-1/2
8 7 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY A Badel · C H Yip 9 32.0 7
9 8 PING HAI COMET H K C Leung · J Size 7 24.0 9-1/4
10 12 VIVA TASTE TT H Bentley · K H Ting 10 9.0 9-3/4
11 1 YOUNG BRAVO CP/XB J Orman · D J Hall 5 8.7 13
12 10 MEGA FORCE TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 4 31.0 13
— 0 CAN'T GO WONG B/TT · F C Lor — — —
— 6 PACKING HURRICANE B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 12 — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 ("TRANS-ISLAND CHINALINK HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-03-04 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. ACE WAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by M Newnham, won, with STAR BROSE second and DOUBLE WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ACE WAR—2. STAR BROSE+2L3. DOUBLE WIN+2.5L4. SMART CITY+3.75L5. SHARPEN BRIGHT+4.75L6. SURE JOYFUL+4.75L7. SERANGOON+5.5L8. YIU CHEUNG VICTORY+7L9. PING HAI COMET+9.25L10. VIVA TASTE+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ACE WAR (20.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 ACE WAR 20.8% 4.81 1
2 11 STAR BROSE 13.3% 7.54 2
3 1 YOUNG BRAVO 11.3% 8.84 11
4 9 SMART CITY 11.1% 9.01 4
5 3 DOUBLE WIN 10.7% 9.38 3
6 2 SERANGOON 9.0% 11.12 7
7 12 VIVA TASTE 4.9% 20.21 10
8 8 PING HAI COMET 4.5% 22.35 9
9 10 MEGA FORCE 4.0% 25.08 12
10 7 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY 3.5% 28.36 8
11 4 SHARPEN BRIGHT 3.5% 28.47 5
12 5 SURE JOYFUL 3.4% 29.13 6
ACE WAR — wonSTAR BROSEYOUNG BRAVOSMART CITYDOUBLE WINSERANGOONVIVA TASTEPING HAI COMETMEGA FORCEYIU CHEUNG VICTORYSHARPEN BRIGHTSURE JOYFUL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 28.5

PLACE

3 27.5

6 16

11 18

QUINELLA

6,11 95.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 59

3,11 80.5

6,11 39.5

FORECAST

6,11 161

TIERCE

6,11,3 1,226

TRIO

3,6,11 327

FIRST 4

3,6,9,11 731

QUARTET

6,11,3,9 13,247

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,11/3,6,11 28,490

2ND DOUBLE

11/6 495

11/11 80