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Happy Valley · 2026-03-04 · 11:40

TRANS-ISLAND CHINALINK HANDICAP

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 ("TRANS-ISLAND CHINALINK HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-03-04 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. ACE WAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by M Newnham, won, with STAR BROSE second and DOUBLE WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (4)
Penetrometer 2.73 #6 ACE WAR — Code 96 #6 ACE WAR — Jockey Change #6 ACE WAR — Weight Change #9 SMART CITY — Weight Change

Result

Official · 2:16.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 ACE WAR Closed strongly XB2/TT- 2:16.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · M Newnham 12 2.8
2 11 STAR BROSE Closed strongly B-/CP2/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 8 5.3 2
3 3 DOUBLE WIN Closed strongly V/XB/TT D B McMonagle · K L Man 1 8.4 2-1/2
4 9 SMART CITY Led early CP/XB C L Chau · P F Yiu 2 15.0 3-3/4
5 4 SHARPEN BRIGHT B M F Poon · Y S Tsui 3 16.0 4-3/4
6 5 SURE JOYFUL Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 6 52.0 4-3/4
7 2 SERANGOON Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 11 12.0 5-1/2
8 7 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY A Badel · C H Yip 9 32.0 7
9 8 PING HAI COMET H K C Leung · J Size 7 24.0 9-1/4
10 12 VIVA TASTE TT H Bentley · K H Ting 10 9.0 9-3/4
11 1 YOUNG BRAVO CP/XB J Orman · D J Hall 5 8.7 13
12 10 MEGA FORCE TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 4 31.0 13
0 CAN'T GO WONG B/TT · F C Lor
6 PACKING HURRICANE B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ACE WAR2. STAR BROSE+2L3. DOUBLE WIN+2.5L4. SMART CITY+3.75L5. SHARPEN BRIGHT+4.75L6. SURE JOYFUL+4.75L7. SERANGOON+5.5L8. YIU CHEUNG VICTORY+7L9. PING HAI COMET+9.25L10. VIVA TASTE+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ACE WAR (20.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 ACE WAR 20.8% 4.81 1
2 11 STAR BROSE 13.3% 7.54 2
3 1 YOUNG BRAVO 11.3% 8.84 11
4 9 SMART CITY 11.1% 9.01 4
5 3 DOUBLE WIN 10.7% 9.38 3
6 2 SERANGOON 9.0% 11.12 7
7 12 VIVA TASTE 4.9% 20.21 10
8 8 PING HAI COMET 4.5% 22.35 9
9 10 MEGA FORCE 4.0% 25.08 12
10 7 YIU CHEUNG VICTORY 3.5% 28.36 8
11 4 SHARPEN BRIGHT 3.5% 28.47 5
12 5 SURE JOYFUL 3.4% 29.13 6
ACE WAR — wonSTAR BROSEYOUNG BRAVOSMART CITYDOUBLE WINSERANGOONVIVA TASTEPING HAI COMETMEGA FORCEYIU CHEUNG VICTORYSHARPEN BRIGHTSURE JOYFUL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 28.5

PLACE

3 27.5

6 16

11 18

QUINELLA

6,11 95.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 59

3,11 80.5

6,11 39.5

FORECAST

6,11 161

TIERCE

6,11,3 1,226

TRIO

3,6,11 327

FIRST 4

3,6,9,11 731

QUARTET

6,11,3,9 13,247

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,11/3,6,11 28,490

2ND DOUBLE

11/6 495

11/11 80