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Happy Valley · 2026-03-25 · 14:15

FANLING HANDICAP

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 8 ("FANLING HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-03-25 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. WITHOUT COMPARE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won, with KEEFY second and BEAUTY ALLIANCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite CALIFORNIA MOXIE finished 6th.

Track detail & race-day changes (3)
Penetrometer 2.71 #4 DARYL FLASH — Code 96 #4 DARYL FLASH — Jockey Change #4 DARYL FLASH — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:40.37
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 WITHOUT COMPARE Closed strongly TT 1:40.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum 12 5.9
2 5 KEEFY Led early CP-/V1 M F Poon · F C Lor 4 10.0 N
3 1 BEAUTY ALLIANCE Closed strongly A Atzeni · J Size 2 7.3 1/2
4 2 SOLID WIN Closed strongly D B McMonagle · P F Yiu 6 7.0 2-3/4
5 10 THRIVING BROTHERS P-/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 10 10.0 4-1/4
6 8 CALIFORNIA MOXIE Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 3 3.9 4-3/4
7 6 KING LOTUS CP L Hewitson · M Newnham 1 12.0 5
8 4 DARYL FLASH B J Orman · Y S Tsui 11 84.0 5-1/2
9 12 POSITIVE SMILE B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 8 11.0 7-3/4
10 3 FLYING FORTRESS XB/TT H Bowman · W K Mo 5 8.3 10
11 9 TRINITY TREASURE Closed strongly B- R Kingscote · D Eustace 9 73.0 10-1/2
12 11 FLUORESCENCE B-/TT P N Wong · K L Man 7 158.0 14-1/2
0 FORTUNATE SON TT · W K Mo
4 FIVEFORTWO TT L Ferraris · K W Lui 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WITHOUT COMPARE2. KEEFY+0.05L3. BEAUTY ALLIANCE+0.5L4. SOLID WIN+2.75L5. THRIVING BROTHERS+4.25L6. CALIFORNIA MOXIE+4.75L7. KING LOTUS+5L8. DARYL FLASH+5.5L9. POSITIVE SMILE+7.75L10. FLYING FORTRESS+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick SOLID WIN (17.0%) finished 4th — the winner WITHOUT COMPARE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SOLID WIN 17.0% 5.90 4
2 1 BEAUTY ALLIANCE 15.8% 6.32 3
3 8 CALIFORNIA MOXIE 15.2% 6.60 6
4 3 FLYING FORTRESS 13.6% 7.36 10
5 7 WITHOUT COMPARE 12.8% 7.83 1
6 12 POSITIVE SMILE 6.5% 15.33 9
7 5 KEEFY 5.9% 16.89 2
8 10 THRIVING BROTHERS 5.2% 19.37 5
9 6 KING LOTUS 3.4% 29.21 7
10 9 TRINITY TREASURE 2.0% 50.13 11
11 4 DARYL FLASH 1.4% 70.87 8
12 11 FLUORESCENCE 1.3% 79.63 12
SOLID WINBEAUTY ALLIANCECALIFORNIA MOXIEFLYING FORTRESSWITHOUT COMPARE — wonPOSITIVE SMILEKEEFYTHRIVING BROTHERSKING LOTUSTRINITY TREASUREDARYL FLASHFLUORESCENCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 59

PLACE

1 27

5 32

7 22

QUINELLA

5,7 318.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 110.5

1,7 83

5,7 112

FORECAST

7,5 623

TIERCE

7,5,1 4,346

TRIO

1,5,7 798

FIRST 4

1,2,5,7 768

QUARTET

7,5,1,2 23,598

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

2/5 75.5

2/7 243.5