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Sha Tin · 2026-04-06 · 09:55

HOMESTEAD HANDICAP

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 2000m Course B+2 11 runners

Race 11 ("HOMESTEAD HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-04-06 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. AERODYNAMICS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by M Newnham, won, with LIVEANDLETLIVE second and ENTHUSIUM third. The winner led throughout. The 3.9 favourite LIVEANDLETLIVE finished 2nd.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998

Result

Official · 2:02.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 AERODYNAMICS Wire to wire CP/TT 2:02.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · M Newnham 11 7.5
2 3 LIVEANDLETLIVE TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 4 3.9 3/4
3 9 ENTHUSIUM Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · J Size 1 14.0 1
4 11 MIGHTY STRENGTH B- K Teetan · P F Yiu 2 19.0 1
5 8 MONEY CATCHER CP K C Leung · F C Lor 10 16.0 1-3/4
6 10 THE AUSPICIOUS Closed strongly H A Badel · Y S Tsui 5 9.8 2-1/2
7 6 FORTUNE BOY B H Bentley · D A Hayes 3 5.9 3
8 2 KARMA TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 28.0 3-1/2
9 1 FALLON Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 9 28.0 5-1/2
10 5 FAMILY JEWEL TT H Bowman · C Fownes 6 10.0 6
11 7 SMART AVENUE B/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 8 5.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AERODYNAMICS2. LIVEANDLETLIVE+0.75L3. ENTHUSIUM+1L4. MIGHTY STRENGTH+1L5. MONEY CATCHER+1.75L6. THE AUSPICIOUS+2.5L7. FORTUNE BOY+3L8. KARMA+3.5L9. FALLON+5.5L10. FAMILY JEWEL+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick SMART AVENUE (20.8%) finished 11th — the winner AERODYNAMICS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SMART AVENUE 20.8% 4.80 11
2 6 FORTUNE BOY 13.5% 7.40 7
3 3 LIVEANDLETLIVE 12.7% 7.86 2
4 4 AERODYNAMICS 11.5% 8.73 1
5 5 FAMILY JEWEL 10.9% 9.18 10
6 8 MONEY CATCHER 6.4% 15.57 5
7 10 THE AUSPICIOUS 6.1% 16.28 6
8 11 MIGHTY STRENGTH 5.8% 17.39 4
9 1 FALLON 5.0% 20.04 9
10 9 ENTHUSIUM 4.0% 25.00 3
11 2 KARMA 3.3% 30.49 8
SMART AVENUEFORTUNE BOYLIVEANDLETLIVEAERODYNAMICS — wonFAMILY JEWELMONEY CATCHERTHE AUSPICIOUSMIGHTY STRENGTHFALLONENTHUSIUMKARMA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 75

PLACE

3 16.5

4 25

9 40.5

QUINELLA

3,4 250.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 85.5

3,9 124.5

4,9 187

FORECAST

4,3 539

TIERCE

4,3,9 6,937

TRIO

3,4,9 1,067

FIRST 4

3,4,9,11 3,802

QUARTET

4,3,9,11 68,729

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

6/3 561

6/4 3,028

2ND TREBLE

3/6/3 2,568

3/6/4 17,752

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,8/3,4,9 67,357

SIX UP

1,4/1,2/2,4/3,8/4,6/3,4 403

4/1/2/3/6/4 615,571

7 [D J Whyte]

1 [Z Purton]