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Sha Tin · 2026-04-06 · 06:00

PLUNKETT'S HANDICAP

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 4 ("PLUNKETT'S HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-04-06 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY MAN, ridden by H Bentley and trained by K H Ting, won, with ROBOT STAR second and ILLUMINOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.7 favourite LUCKY RANGER did not finish.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #12 DUKE OF ORANGE — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:21.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 LUCKY MAN Closed strongly BO/H 1:21.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · K H Ting 1 14.0
2 3 ROBOT STAR Closed strongly CP H Bowman · K L Man 7 13.0 3
3 9 ILLUMINOUS Closed strongly V M F Poon · F C Lor 2 105.0 4
4 12 DUKE OF ORANGE Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C H Yip 14 70.0 4
5 5 FLYING KNIGHT Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · W K Mo 13 124.0 4-1/2
6 1 GALLANT EPOCH B/TT H Y Yuen · K W Lui 5 4.7 5-1/2
7 10 GOR GOR Closed strongly K Teetan · B Crawford 12 29.0 7-1/4
8 4 CLEANSWEEPER Closed strongly H1/TT1 K C Leung · M Newnham 9 145.0 8
9 6 KING CANNON Closed strongly XB R Kingscote · D Eustace 10 122.0 8-3/4
10 7 LET'S HAVE FUN TT B Avdulla · D A Hayes 4 132.0 9-1/2
11 11 I EXCELLE Led early B1/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 3 69.0 13-1/2
12 8 CALIFORNIA BAY V/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 6 5.7 17-3/4
13 13 QUICK MONEY B-/XB/TT A Badel · C H Yip 11 114.0 18-1/4
2 LUCKY RANGER L Ferraris · M Newnham 8 1.7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY MAN2. ROBOT STAR+3L3. ILLUMINOUS+4L4. DUKE OF ORANGE+4L5. FLYING KNIGHT+4.5L6. GALLANT EPOCH+5.5L7. GOR GOR+7.25L8. CLEANSWEEPER+8L9. KING CANNON+8.75L10. LET'S HAVE FUN+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick GALLANT EPOCH (28.0%) finished 6th — the winner LUCKY MAN was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GALLANT EPOCH 28.0% 3.58 6
2 8 CALIFORNIA BAY 22.6% 4.43 12
3 3 ROBOT STAR 10.6% 9.44 2
4 14 LUCKY MAN 6.8% 14.72 1
5 12 DUKE OF ORANGE 5.9% 17.04 4
6 11 I EXCELLE 5.6% 17.73 11
7 10 GOR GOR 5.3% 18.74 7
8 5 FLYING KNIGHT 3.5% 28.92 5
9 4 CLEANSWEEPER 2.9% 33.99 8
10 9 ILLUMINOUS 2.8% 35.11 3
11 13 QUICK MONEY 2.4% 41.23 13
12 6 KING CANNON 2.0% 49.73 9
13 7 LET'S HAVE FUN 1.5% 64.77 10
GALLANT EPOCHCALIFORNIA BAYROBOT STARLUCKY MAN — wonDUKE OF ORANGEI EXCELLEGOR GORFLYING KNIGHTCLEANSWEEPERILLUMINOUSQUICK MONEYKING CANNONLET'S HAVE FUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 146.5

PLACE

3 23.5

9 145

14 34

QUINELLA

3,14 694

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 691.5

3,14 161

9,14 998

FORECAST

14,3 1,385

TIERCE

14,3,9 58,061

TRIO

3,9,14 11,124

FIRST 4

3,9,12,14 72,771

QUARTET

14,3,9,12 535,388

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

7/3 250.5

7/14 2,336