Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2026-04-15 · 12:40

THE HONG KONG CHINA RUGBY CUP (HANDICAP)

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 5 ("THE HONG KONG CHINA RUGBY CUP (HANDICAP)") at Happy Valley on 2026-04-15 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY ALLIANCE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won, with DO YOUR PART second and WIN METHOD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite DO YOUR PART finished 2nd.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.71 #11 SUPREME MASTERMIND — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:39.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BEAUTY ALLIANCE Closed strongly 1:39.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 7 5.0
2 4 DO YOUR PART Closed strongly XB/TT L Ferraris · K W Lui 5 3.7 N
3 10 WIN METHOD Led early TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 6 5.5 N
4 6 FORTUNATE SON Closed strongly TT K Teetan · W K Mo 11 52.0 1-3/4
5 2 LE ZONDA Closed strongly TT C L Chau · P C Ng 10 19.0 2-3/4
6 3 WROTE A NEW PAGE TT J Moreira · C Fownes 1 4.9 3
7 8 SUPERB KID Closed strongly M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 9 95.0 4
8 11 SUPREME MASTERMIND H Bentley · D A Hayes 2 9.1 4-1/4
9 5 KING LOTUS CP J Orman · M Newnham 4 24.0 4-1/2
10 7 CALIFORNIA MOXIE B/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz 8 10.0 5
11 9 GRATIFIDE XB M Chadwick · D Eustace 3 31.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY ALLIANCE2. DO YOUR PART+0.05L3. WIN METHOD+0.05L4. FORTUNATE SON+1.75L5. LE ZONDA+2.75L6. WROTE A NEW PAGE+3L7. SUPERB KID+4L8. SUPREME MASTERMIND+4.25L9. KING LOTUS+4.5L10. CALIFORNIA MOXIE+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick DO YOUR PART (23.2%) finished 2nd — the winner BEAUTY ALLIANCE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 DO YOUR PART 23.2% 4.30 2
2 3 WROTE A NEW PAGE 21.2% 4.72 6
3 10 WIN METHOD 16.3% 6.14 3
4 1 BEAUTY ALLIANCE 12.2% 8.22 1
5 7 CALIFORNIA MOXIE 7.0% 14.26 10
6 5 KING LOTUS 6.2% 16.10 9
7 11 SUPREME MASTERMIND 3.7% 27.27 8
8 2 LE ZONDA 3.4% 29.05 5
9 9 GRATIFIDE 2.4% 41.66 11
10 6 FORTUNATE SON 2.3% 43.53 4
11 8 SUPERB KID 2.1% 48.06 7
DO YOUR PARTWROTE A NEW PAGEWIN METHODBEAUTY ALLIANCE — wonCALIFORNIA MOXIEKING LOTUSSUPREME MASTERMINDLE ZONDAGRATIFIDEFORTUNATE SONSUPERB KID

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 50.5

PLACE

1 19

4 14.5

10 20.5

QUINELLA

1,4 100

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 41

1,10 75.5

4,10 39

FORECAST

1,4 238

TIERCE

1,4,10 924

TRIO

1,4,10 117

FIRST 4

1,4,6,10 1,091

QUARTET

1,4,10,6 19,936

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/4/1 1,389

1/4/4 163

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,10,11/1,4,10 5,098

4TH DOUBLE

4/1 538

4/4 45.5