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Happy Valley · 2026-04-15 · 10:35

CELEBRATING 50 YEARS OF THE HK SEVENS 1000M HANDICAP

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1000m Course A 12 runners

Race 1 ("CELEBRATING 50 YEARS OF THE HK SEVENS 1000M HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-04-15 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. ALWAYS MY FOLKS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won, with MACANESE MASTER second and SPICY SPANGLE third. The 3.4 favourite MACANESE MASTER finished 2nd.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.71 #12 BINGO BABE — Weight Change

Result

Official · 0:56.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 ALWAYS MY FOLKS B/TT 0:56.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 7 4.9
2 5 MACANESE MASTER V Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 1 3.4 1-1/4
3 4 SPICY SPANGLE H/TT H Bowman · W K Mo 6 5.5 1-1/4
4 8 TAIHANG SCENERY H-/TT E C W Wong · C S Shum 12 32.0 2-3/4
5 1 COUNTRY DANCER E J Orman · J Size 5 14.0 2-3/4
6 12 BINGO BABE CP1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 6.7 3-1/4
7 3 LUCKY GENERATIONS B1 J Moreira · C Fownes 2 6.0 3-1/2
8 9 ORIENTAL SURPRISE B/TT H Bentley · D A Hayes 11 18.0 4
9 10 SHINE BRIGHT B M Chadwick · C H Yip 8 28.0 4-1/4
10 7 RUN YES RUN B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 3 109.0 5
11 11 SPORTIC WARRIOR CP/TT2 H T Mo · C W Chang 4 227.0 7-1/2
12 2 FORTUNE WARRIOR XB/B2/TT P N Wong · C H Yip 9 56.0 10-1/4
0 MANYTHANKS FOREVER V/TT · W Y So
0 HAPPY BOYS H/TT1 · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALWAYS MY FOLKS2. MACANESE MASTER+1.25L3. SPICY SPANGLE+1.25L4. TAIHANG SCENERY+2.75L5. COUNTRY DANCER+2.75L6. BINGO BABE+3.25L7. LUCKY GENERATIONS+3.5L8. ORIENTAL SURPRISE+4L9. SHINE BRIGHT+4.25L10. RUN YES RUN+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MACANESE MASTER (28.8%) finished 2nd — the winner ALWAYS MY FOLKS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MACANESE MASTER 28.8% 3.47 2
2 3 LUCKY GENERATIONS 18.2% 5.50 7
3 6 ALWAYS MY FOLKS 14.1% 7.10 1
4 4 SPICY SPANGLE 8.3% 12.02 3
5 9 ORIENTAL SURPRISE 6.0% 16.54 8
6 12 BINGO BABE 5.0% 20.07 6
7 1 COUNTRY DANCER 4.5% 22.09 5
8 10 SHINE BRIGHT 3.9% 25.43 9
9 8 TAIHANG SCENERY 3.9% 25.88 4
10 7 RUN YES RUN 3.8% 26.57 10
11 2 FORTUNE WARRIOR 2.1% 48.70 12
12 11 SPORTIC WARRIOR 1.5% 68.91 11
MACANESE MASTERLUCKY GENERATIONSALWAYS MY FOLKS — wonSPICY SPANGLEORIENTAL SURPRISEBINGO BABECOUNTRY DANCERSHINE BRIGHTTAIHANG SCENERYRUN YES RUNFORTUNE WARRIORSPORTIC WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 49

PLACE

4 20

5 15

6 18.5

QUINELLA

5,6 83.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 39.5

4,6 48.5

5,6 34.5

FORECAST

6,5 182

TIERCE

6,5,4 994

TRIO

4,5,6 168

FIRST 4

4,5,6,8 655

QUARTET

6,5,4,8 12,613