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Sha Tin · 2026-05-09 · 04:30

BUTTERFLY BAY PLATE

Race 1

Griffin Race GOOD TO YIELDING 1000m Course C 10 runners

Race 1 ("BUTTERFLY BAY PLATE") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-09 was Griffin Race over 1000m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. SPICE BAG, ridden by J Orman and trained by D J Hall, won, with SHARP PLANET second and EVER WEALTH third. The 3.4 favourite SHARP PLANET finished 2nd.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998

Result

Official · 0:57.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SPICE BAG 0:57.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · D J Hall 4 49.0
2 2 SHARP PLANET TT1 J Moreira · C Fownes 5 3.4 3/4
3 6 EVER WEALTH H Y Yuen · P F Yiu 8 10.0 1-1/2
4 7 GAUDIUM MAGNUM B1 A Atzeni · M Newnham 1 3.7 1-3/4
5 1 ALMIGHTY WARRIOR XB1 Z Purton · K W Lui 3 6.3 3-1/4
6 3 SHOW ME YOUR LOVE H Bowman · D J Whyte 6 14.0 3-1/2
7 10 TALENTS CHAMPION CP1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 7 11.0 3-3/4
8 4 SILVERY KNIGHT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 23.0 4-1/4
9 8 GLORIOUS HERO K Teetan · D A Hayes 10 67.0 9
10 9 SECRET INGREDIENT H Bentley · D A Hayes 9 6.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPICE BAG2. SHARP PLANET+0.75L3. EVER WEALTH+1.5L4. GAUDIUM MAGNUM+1.75L5. ALMIGHTY WARRIOR+3.25L6. SHOW ME YOUR LOVE+3.5L7. TALENTS CHAMPION+3.75L8. SILVERY KNIGHT+4.25L9. GLORIOUS HERO+9L10. SECRET INGREDIENT+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ALMIGHTY WARRIOR (18.1%) finished 5th — the winner SPICE BAG was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ALMIGHTY WARRIOR 18.1% 5.54 5
2 6 EVER WEALTH 17.6% 5.69 3
3 2 SHARP PLANET 16.9% 5.92 2
4 7 GAUDIUM MAGNUM 14.2% 7.05 4
5 10 TALENTS CHAMPION 10.8% 9.26 7
6 9 SECRET INGREDIENT 9.0% 11.11 10
7 3 SHOW ME YOUR LOVE 6.0% 16.75 6
8 4 SILVERY KNIGHT 3.5% 28.95 8
9 5 SPICE BAG 2.7% 36.90 1
10 8 GLORIOUS HERO 1.4% 72.99 9
ALMIGHTY WARRIOREVER WEALTHSHARP PLANETGAUDIUM MAGNUMTALENTS CHAMPIONSECRET INGREDIENTSHOW ME YOUR LOVESILVERY KNIGHTSPICE BAG — wonGLORIOUS HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 499

PLACE

2 14

5 105.5

6 31

QUINELLA

2,5 1,217.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 365

2,6 85

5,6 557.5

FORECAST

5,2 1,708

TIERCE

5,2,6 30,907

TRIO

2,5,6 3,858

FIRST 4

2,5,6,7 1,521

QUARTET

5,2,6,7 77,805