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Sha Tin · 2026-05-09 · 09:45

SAI WAN SHAN HANDICAP

Race 11

Class 2 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 11 ("SAI WAN SHAN HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-09 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. PATCH OF STARS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K L Man, won, with CRIMSON FLASH second and PUBLIC ATTENTION third. The 2.1 favourite HOT DELIGHT finished 4th.

Track detail & race-day changes (2)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #6 BULB GENERAL — Weight Change #9 LADY'S CHOICE — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:09.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 PATCH OF STARS TT 1:09.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K L Man 3 6.9
2 2 CRIMSON FLASH B A Atzeni · M Newnham 10 25.0 1
3 12 PUBLIC ATTENTION B- K Teetan · B Crawford 2 9.8 1
4 11 HOT DELIGHT TT H Bentley · K W Lui 11 2.1 1-1/4
5 1 LUCKY WITH YOU H Y Yuen · F C Lor 7 26.0 1-1/4
6 6 BULB GENERAL CP/TT J Moreira · J Richards 4 4.7 2-1/4
7 9 LADY'S CHOICE B M F Poon · C W Chang 12 59.0 2-1/2
8 7 VICTOR THE WINNER TT M L Yeung · P C Ng 8 73.0 2-1/2
9 8 GUSTOSISIMO TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 67.0 2-1/2
10 10 AKASHVANI B P N Wong · D A Hayes 1 25.0 3-3/4
11 3 INVINCIBLE SAGE CP J Orman · D J Hall 9 31.0 4-1/2
12 5 YOUNG CHAMPION B B Avdulla · J Size 5 10.0 5
0 PAKISTAN LEGACY V/TT · W Y So
0 SELF IMPROVEMENT B/TT · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PATCH OF STARS2. CRIMSON FLASH+1L3. PUBLIC ATTENTION+1L4. HOT DELIGHT+1.25L5. LUCKY WITH YOU+1.25L6. BULB GENERAL+2.25L7. LADY'S CHOICE+2.5L8. VICTOR THE WINNER+2.5L9. GUSTOSISIMO+2.5L10. AKASHVANI+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick HOT DELIGHT (36.6%) finished 4th — the winner PATCH OF STARS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 HOT DELIGHT 36.6% 2.73 4
2 6 BULB GENERAL 24.7% 4.05 6
3 4 PATCH OF STARS 11.5% 8.73 1
4 2 CRIMSON FLASH 6.0% 16.62 2
5 10 AKASHVANI 5.1% 19.66 10
6 5 YOUNG CHAMPION 3.5% 28.72 12
7 1 LUCKY WITH YOU 3.3% 30.22 5
8 8 GUSTOSISIMO 3.2% 31.71 9
9 12 PUBLIC ATTENTION 2.0% 49.71 3
10 9 LADY'S CHOICE 1.5% 66.65 7
11 3 INVINCIBLE SAGE 1.4% 70.40 11
12 7 VICTOR THE WINNER 1.2% 81.09 8
HOT DELIGHTBULB GENERALPATCH OF STARS — wonCRIMSON FLASHAKASHVANIYOUNG CHAMPIONLUCKY WITH YOUGUSTOSISIMOPUBLIC ATTENTIONLADY'S CHOICEINVINCIBLE SAGEVICTOR THE WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 69.5

PLACE

2 49.5

4 17

12 27

QUINELLA

2,4 661

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 171.5

2,12 327

4,12 78.5

FORECAST

4,2 1,049

TIERCE

4,2,12 12,253

TRIO

2,4,12 2,513

FIRST 4

2,4,11,12 826

QUARTET

4,2,12,11 32,947

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

5/2 115.5

5/4 240.5

2ND TREBLE

7/5/2 3,516

7/5/4 6,698

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,5/2,4,12 54,526

SIX UP

6,7/8,13/7,11/7,13/4,5/2,4 71,712

6/13/7/7/5/4 3,881,629

1 [Z Purton]

6 [C H Yip]