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Sha Tin · 2026-05-09 · 08:05

LEI YUE MUN PARK HANDICAP

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 ("LEI YUE MUN PARK HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-09 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. EFFORTLESS WIN, ridden by C L Chau and trained by F C Lor, won, with THRIVING BROTHERS second and GOLD PATCH third. The 3.1 favourite SPICY STANDARD finished 7th.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #7 EFFORTLESS WIN — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:09.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 EFFORTLESS WIN 1:09.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · F C Lor 6 12.0
2 11 THRIVING BROTHERS TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 2 16.0 N
3 3 GOLD PATCH XB Z Purton · K W Lui 11 3.3 3/4
4 8 THUNDER ACTION M L Yeung · W Y So 7 46.0 1-1/4
5 12 RISING FROM ASHES XB-/B/TT2 H T Mo · C W Chang 10 119.0 1-1/4
6 9 ACE CHAMPION TT R Kingscote · P C Ng 4 16.0 1-1/4
7 10 SPICY STANDARD A Atzeni · J Size 8 3.1 2-3/4
8 6 LUCKY MY WAY B- L Hewitson · D Eustace 9 64.0 2-3/4
9 4 CHILL BUDDY TT H Y Yuen · P F Yiu 3 3.6 3
10 2 JUBILANT WINNER B/TT A Badel · J Richards 12 31.0 3-3/4
11 1 SUPERB CAPITALIST TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 55.0 5-1/2
12 5 KANSAS CP H Bentley · D A Hayes 5 116.0 11-3/4
0 SOVEREIGN FUND CP1 · B Crawford
0 MOTOR B/TT · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EFFORTLESS WIN2. THRIVING BROTHERS+0.05L3. GOLD PATCH+0.75L4. THUNDER ACTION+1.25L5. RISING FROM ASHES+1.25L6. ACE CHAMPION+1.25L7. SPICY STANDARD+2.75L8. LUCKY MY WAY+2.75L9. CHILL BUDDY+3L10. JUBILANT WINNER+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick GOLD PATCH (48.5%) finished 3rd — the winner EFFORTLESS WIN was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 GOLD PATCH 48.5% 2.06 3
2 4 CHILL BUDDY 16.2% 6.16 9
3 10 SPICY STANDARD 11.2% 8.93 7
4 7 EFFORTLESS WIN 5.1% 19.63 1
5 11 THRIVING BROTHERS 4.4% 22.91 2
6 2 JUBILANT WINNER 4.3% 23.52 10
7 9 ACE CHAMPION 3.3% 30.51 6
8 1 SUPERB CAPITALIST 1.8% 54.14 11
9 6 LUCKY MY WAY 1.8% 54.56 8
10 8 THUNDER ACTION 1.5% 68.11 4
11 12 RISING FROM ASHES 1.2% 85.02 5
12 5 KANSAS 0.7% 140.02 12
GOLD PATCHCHILL BUDDYSPICY STANDARDEFFORTLESS WIN — wonTHRIVING BROTHERSJUBILANT WINNERACE CHAMPIONSUPERB CAPITALISTLUCKY MY WAYTHUNDER ACTIONRISING FROM ASHESKANSAS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 121

PLACE

3 14.5

7 32

11 32

QUINELLA

7,11 788

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 75

3,11 64.5

7,11 192.5

FORECAST

7,11 1,519

TIERCE

7,11,3 6,395

TRIO

3,7,11 720

FIRST 4

3,7,8,11 3,635

QUARTET

7,11,3,8 139,393

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

13/7 1,522.5

13/11 428