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Sha Tin · 2026-05-09 · 07:00

CASTLE PEAK HANDICAP

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 ("CASTLE PEAK HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-09 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. INVICTUS DRAGON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won, with LUCKY MAN second and INVICTUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite SUPER DRAGON finished 9th.

Track detail & race-day changes (2)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #12 LEATHER GOODS — Jockey Change #13 THE CONCENTRATION — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:22.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 INVICTUS DRAGON Closed strongly 1:22.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 10 4.4
2 7 LUCKY MAN Closed strongly BO/H H Bentley · K H Ting 3 5.1 1-1/4
3 3 INVICTUS XB J Orman · D J Whyte 7 24.0 2-1/2
4 5 STAR SATYR CP1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 31.0 2-3/4
5 2 BEST WORLD Closed strongly CP1 C L Chau · D A Hayes 8 20.0 2-3/4
6 11 DECISION LINK Closed strongly V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 13 6.6 2-3/4
7 13 THE CONCENTRATION Led early B H Y Yuen · P F Yiu 6 10.0 4
8 9 CHEERFUL WONGCHOY H/PC E Brown · P C Ng 2 16.0 7-1/4
9 8 SUPER DRAGON Closed strongly A Atzeni · M Newnham 5 3.8 8-1/2
10 10 CELESTIAL STRIDER Closed strongly TT H T Mo · W Y So 11 115.0 12-1/4
11 14 MONEY TYCOON M L Yeung · F C Lor 1 44.0 13-1/2
12 1 FLYING FORTUNE H-/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 14 54.0 15-3/4
13 4 LUCKY BID TT B Avdulla · J Richards 12 23.0 16-3/4
14 12 LEATHER GOODS B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 9 85.0 22-1/2
0 SOLID CAR B · D J Hall
0 AQUAMAN CP-/TT · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. INVICTUS DRAGON2. LUCKY MAN+1.25L3. INVICTUS+2.5L4. STAR SATYR+2.75L5. BEST WORLD+2.75L6. DECISION LINK+2.75L7. THE CONCENTRATION+4L8. CHEERFUL WONGCHOY+7.25L9. SUPER DRAGON+8.5L10. CELESTIAL STRIDER+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick INVICTUS DRAGON (20.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 INVICTUS DRAGON 20.0% 4.99 1
2 8 SUPER DRAGON 17.2% 5.82 9
3 7 LUCKY MAN 15.2% 6.58 2
4 11 DECISION LINK 13.1% 7.64 6
5 2 BEST WORLD 7.3% 13.77 5
6 13 THE CONCENTRATION 7.2% 13.92 7
7 5 STAR SATYR 5.1% 19.63 4
8 4 LUCKY BID 4.0% 24.99 13
9 3 INVICTUS 2.6% 38.38 3
10 9 CHEERFUL WONGCHOY 2.4% 41.42 8
11 1 FLYING FORTUNE 1.9% 51.37 12
12 14 MONEY TYCOON 1.5% 68.83 11
13 10 CELESTIAL STRIDER 1.4% 69.11 10
14 12 LEATHER GOODS 1.1% 92.46 14
INVICTUS DRAGON — wonSUPER DRAGONLUCKY MANDECISION LINKBEST WORLDTHE CONCENTRATIONSTAR SATYRLUCKY BIDINVICTUSCHEERFUL WONGCHOYFLYING FORTUNEMONEY TYCOONCELESTIAL STRIDERLEATHER GOODS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 44.5

PLACE

3 57.5

6 18

7 18

QUINELLA

6,7 115

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 157.5

3,7 165.5

6,7 46.5

FORECAST

6,7 223

TIERCE

6,7,3 3,632

TRIO

3,6,7 852

FIRST 4

3,5,6,7 3,540

QUARTET

6,7,3,5 44,854

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

4/6 9,674.5

4/7 2,163