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Sha Tin · 2026-05-09 · 05:00

TUEN MUN PUBLIC RIDING SCHOOL HANDICAP

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 2 ("TUEN MUN PUBLIC RIDING SCHOOL HANDICAP") at Sha Tin on 2026-05-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. NORTHERN FIRE BALL, ridden by H Y Yuen and trained by C H Yip, won, with MATZDEN second and WARRIORS DREAM third. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998

Result

Official · 1:09.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 NORTHERN FIRE BALL CP-/TT 1:09.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Y Yuen · C H Yip 3 3.4
2 2 MATZDEN TT H Bowman · J Richards 5 4.2 2-1/2
3 5 WARRIORS DREAM XB/TT K Teetan · B Crawford 2 9.5 3-1/2
4 4 BRIGHT DAY V/TT J Orman · K L Man 6 6.9 3-1/2
5 7 QUARTZ LEGEND B-/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 1 7.4 5-3/4
6 12 LIGHTNING ACE P-/H/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 4 122.0 6-1/2
7 8 SPIRITED STEED Z Purton · K W Lui 7 8.5 7
8 6 ACA FAST E Brown · D J Hall 8 41.0 7-1/4
9 3 RYUI KOKOROE BO H Bentley · D A Hayes 11 12.0 7-1/2
10 10 EXTRAORDINARY GALL B K C Leung · K L Man 12 122.0 10-3/4
11 9 THE COSMIC POWER TT H T Mo · C S Shum 9 118.0 11-3/4
12 11 RUSSET GLOW B1/TT L Hewitson · M Newnham 10 20.0 14-1/2
0 WHOWROTETHATSONG TT · C H Yip
0 RISING ELITE CP/TT · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NORTHERN FIRE BALL2. MATZDEN+2.5L3. WARRIORS DREAM+3.5L4. BRIGHT DAY+3.5L5. QUARTZ LEGEND+5.75L6. LIGHTNING ACE+6.5L7. SPIRITED STEED+7L8. ACA FAST+7.25L9. RYUI KOKOROE+7.5L10. EXTRAORDINARY GALL+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MATZDEN (23.3%) finished 2nd — the winner NORTHERN FIRE BALL was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 MATZDEN 23.3% 4.28 2
2 8 SPIRITED STEED 21.1% 4.75 7
3 7 QUARTZ LEGEND 13.3% 7.52 5
4 4 BRIGHT DAY 12.5% 8.00 4
5 1 NORTHERN FIRE BALL 6.7% 15.02 1
6 5 WARRIORS DREAM 6.4% 15.66 3
7 3 RYUI KOKOROE 5.7% 17.61 9
8 11 RUSSET GLOW 5.0% 19.92 12
9 6 ACA FAST 2.6% 39.09 8
10 12 LIGHTNING ACE 1.5% 66.93 6
11 10 EXTRAORDINARY GALL 1.0% 96.69 10
12 9 THE COSMIC POWER 1.0% 102.87 11
MATZDENSPIRITED STEEDQUARTZ LEGENDBRIGHT DAYNORTHERN FIRE BALL — wonWARRIORS DREAMRYUI KOKOROERUSSET GLOWACA FASTLIGHTNING ACEEXTRAORDINARY GALLTHE COSMIC POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 34

PLACE

1 14.5

2 16.5

5 28.5

QUINELLA

1,2 77

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 32.5

1,5 63

2,5 64

FORECAST

1,2 127

TIERCE

1,2,5 965

TRIO

1,2,5 183

FIRST 4

1,2,4,5 209

QUARTET

1,2,5,4 3,408

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/1 3,349

5/2 496.5