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Happy Valley · 2026-05-20 · 11:40

DENDROBIUM HANDICAP

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 ("DENDROBIUM HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-05-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. VULCANUS, ridden by H T Mo and trained by Y S Tsui, won, with BROWNNEEDSFURTHER second and GEORGIAN SIGMA third. The 2.8 favourite GEORGIAN SIGMA finished 3rd.

Track detail & race-day changes (3)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #10 CAPTAIN LINK — Code 96 #10 CAPTAIN LINK — Jockey Change #10 CAPTAIN LINK — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:09.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 VULCANUS B 1:09.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 25.0
2 8 BROWNNEEDSFURTHER B-/V1/TT J Orman · D J Hall 8 5.8 1/2
3 4 GEORGIAN SIGMA PC M F Poon · P C Ng 4 2.8 1/2
4 3 CHEAHA TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 11.0 3/4
5 6 LIVE WIRE B/XB Z Purton · D J Whyte 11 7.3 3/4
6 10 CAPTAIN LINK B/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 5 10.0 2-1/2
7 7 HEROIC VANGUARD TT A Badel · C H Yip 12 128.0 2-1/2
8 5 FREE PONY P M L Yeung · C W Chang 6 16.0 3-3/4
9 12 VIGOR ELLEEGANT TT M Chadwick · K L Man 9 13.0 5
10 1 COPARTNER FLEET XB H Bowman · K W Lui 10 19.0 7-3/4
11 11 STORMY KNIGHT B Avdulla · D A Hayes 7 39.0 11-1/4
12 9 LEGEND STAR B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 1 9.1 12-1/2
0 GENIUS BABY CP/XB/TT · B Crawford
WV 10 KING CANNON CP/XB R Kingscote · D Eustace 5

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VULCANUS2. BROWNNEEDSFURTHER+0.5L3. GEORGIAN SIGMA+0.5L4. CHEAHA+0.75L5. LIVE WIRE+0.75L6. CAPTAIN LINK+2.5L7. HEROIC VANGUARD+2.5L8. FREE PONY+3.75L9. VIGOR ELLEEGANT+5L10. COPARTNER FLEET+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick GEORGIAN SIGMA (19.1%) finished 3rd — the winner VULCANUS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 GEORGIAN SIGMA 19.1% 5.24 3
2 8 BROWNNEEDSFURTHER 17.5% 5.72 2
3 6 LIVE WIRE 11.8% 8.47 5
4 9 LEGEND STAR 11.1% 9.04 12
5 10 CAPTAIN LINK 8.8% 11.41 6
6 5 FREE PONY 7.7% 13.04 8
7 2 VULCANUS 5.9% 16.94 1
8 1 COPARTNER FLEET 5.5% 18.33 10
9 11 STORMY KNIGHT 3.8% 26.39 11
10 12 VIGOR ELLEEGANT 3.6% 27.87 9
11 3 CHEAHA 3.4% 29.82 4
12 7 HEROIC VANGUARD 2.0% 49.60 7
GEORGIAN SIGMABROWNNEEDSFURTHERLIVE WIRELEGEND STARCAPTAIN LINKFREE PONYVULCANUS — wonCOPARTNER FLEETSTORMY KNIGHTVIGOR ELLEEGANTCHEAHAHEROIC VANGUARD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 250

PLACE

2 56.5

4 15.5

8 19

QUINELLA

2,8 933

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 125.5

2,8 221.5

4,8 39

FORECAST

2,8 2,086

TIERCE

2,8,4 4,783

TRIO

2,4,8 568

FIRST 4

2,3,4,8 895

QUARTET

2,8,4,3 27,952

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,10/2,4,8 48,970

2ND DOUBLE

10/2 441

10/8 33.5