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Happy Valley · 2026-05-20 · 12:10

DANDELION HANDICAP

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 ("DANDELION HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-05-20 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. DECISION LINK, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won, with NORTHERN BEAST second and FLYING FORTUNE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (4)
Penetrometer 2.7199999999999998 #11 BLAZING BEAM — Weight Change #2 LUCK IS BACK — Code 96 #2 LUCK IS BACK — Jockey Change #2 LUCK IS BACK — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:39.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 DECISION LINK Closed strongly V/TT 1:39.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 1 1.7
2 10 NORTHERN BEAST Closed strongly CP1 M F Poon · D J Hall 3 22.0 1/2
3 3 FLYING FORTUNE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · W K Mo 4 22.0 2
4 5 COLOURFUL GAN Closed strongly B B Avdulla · D J Whyte 8 64.0 2-1/2
5 6 FORTUNE STAR Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · M Newnham 9 7.8 2-3/4
6 9 LEAPING STAR CP H Bentley · D A Hayes 2 42.0 3-3/4
7 12 OUR LUCKY GLORY CP1/TT K Teetan · W Y So 6 9.3 3-3/4
8 1 ANOTHER ZONDA B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 11 12.0 4-1/4
9 4 LUCKY TOGETHER H/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 10 11.0 7
10 7 SURE JOYFUL TT C L Chau · P F Yiu 12 16.0 7-1/4
11 2 LUCK IS BACK P J Orman · P C Ng 7 36.0 7-1/2
12 11 BLAZING BEAM Led early B/TT R Kingscote · K H Ting 5 56.0 12-1/4
0 DAILY TROPHY TT · C Fownes
WV 2 RAGGA BOMB XB- Z Purton · D Eustace 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DECISION LINK2. NORTHERN BEAST+0.5L3. FLYING FORTUNE+2L4. COLOURFUL GAN+2.5L5. FORTUNE STAR+2.75L6. LEAPING STAR+3.75L7. OUR LUCKY GLORY+3.75L8. ANOTHER ZONDA+4.25L9. LUCKY TOGETHER+7L10. SURE JOYFUL+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick DECISION LINK (40.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 DECISION LINK 40.7% 2.46 1
2 6 FORTUNE STAR 16.8% 5.96 5
3 12 OUR LUCKY GLORY 13.0% 7.70 7
4 4 LUCKY TOGETHER 5.6% 17.74 9
5 1 ANOTHER ZONDA 4.5% 22.09 8
6 2 LUCK IS BACK 3.6% 27.55 11
7 7 SURE JOYFUL 3.6% 27.77 10
8 10 NORTHERN BEAST 3.2% 31.19 2
9 3 FLYING FORTUNE 2.8% 36.11 3
10 11 BLAZING BEAM 2.3% 43.24 12
11 5 COLOURFUL GAN 2.2% 46.15 4
12 9 LEAPING STAR 1.7% 58.42 6
DECISION LINK — wonFORTUNE STAROUR LUCKY GLORYLUCKY TOGETHERANOTHER ZONDALUCK IS BACKSURE JOYFULNORTHERN BEASTFLYING FORTUNEBLAZING BEAMCOLOURFUL GANLEAPING STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 17.5

PLACE

3 44.5

8 11.5

10 44.5

QUINELLA

8,10 172.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 82.5

3,10 517

8,10 76.5

FORECAST

8,10 270

TIERCE

8,10,3 3,213

TRIO

3,8,10 863

FIRST 4

3,5,8,10 7,734

QUARTET

8,10,3,5 56,621

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

2/8 597.5

2/10 396.5