沙田 · 2019-10-20
第 5場
2019-10-20沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、T P Yung訓練的SUCH A HAPPINESS勝出，贏出N。BLASTOISE獲得亞軍；VILLA FIONN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.7倍大熱門VILLA FIONN跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SUCH A HAPPINESS 後段發力 1.34.38 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 4 | 5.9 | N |
| 2 | 6 | BLASTOISE 後段發力 U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 11 | 7.8 | N |
| 3 | 10 | VILLA FIONN 後段發力 B A Domeyer · P F Yiu | A Domeyer | P F Yiu | 5 | 4.7 | N |
| 4 | 14 | SAVVY SEVEN 後段發力 B/TT J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 13 | 5.8 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | LITTLE GENERAL 後段發力 CP G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 12 | 7.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | LONDON HALL 後段發力 B C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 3 | 9.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | WINNING CONTROLLER B H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 1 | 34.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 13 | SPEEDY OPTIMIST M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 10 | 34.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 14 | 7.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | THE ONE B C Schofield · Y S Tsui | C Schofield | Y S Tsui | 6 | 58.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | DASHING DART 後段發力 B/TT A Sanna · P O'Sullivan | A Sanna | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 86.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | SMART BABY V N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 9 | 118.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 4 | WITNESS HUNTER SR/B2 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 8 | 20.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 14 | 9 | PHENOMENAL 早段領放 H-/B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 2 | 239.0 | 11-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | SAVVY SEVEN | 19.0% | 5.27 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | SUCH A HAPPINESS | 18.1% | 5.51 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | LONDON HALL | 14.0% | 7.13 | 6 |
| 4 | 7 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 12.3% | 8.16 | 9 |
| 5 | 10 | VILLA FIONN | 7.6% | 13.13 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | BLASTOISE | 5.7% | 17.66 | 2 |
| 7 | 12 | LITTLE GENERAL | 5.2% | 19.16 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | THE ONE | 5.2% | 19.34 | 10 |
| 9 | 4 | WITNESS HUNTER | 4.8% | 21.02 | 13 |
| 10 | 1 | SMART BABY | 2.3% | 43.01 | 12 |
| 11 | 13 | SPEEDY OPTIMIST | 2.3% | 43.37 | 8 |
| 12 | 11 | WINNING CONTROLLER | 1.4% | 69.72 | 7 |
| 13 | 8 | DASHING DART | 1.4% | 73.41 | 11 |
| 14 | 9 | PHENOMENAL | 0.8% | 131.90 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 59
PLACE
3 21
6 26.5
10 19
QUINELLA
3,6 284
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 93.5
3,10 58
6,10 89.5
TIERCE
3,6,10 2,535
TRIO
3,6,10 423
FIRST 4
3,6,10,14 413
QUARTET
3,6,10,14 9,398
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 19
A1 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
4/3 2,466
4/6 436