跑馬地 · 2019-12-18
第 2場
2019-12-18跑馬地第2場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K Teetan策騎、A S Cruz訓練的FLYING GENIUS勝出，贏出1-3/4。WINNING WAYS獲得亞軍；HAPPY GOOD GUYS獲得季軍。3.3倍大熱門ARES跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FLYING GENIUS TT 0.57.10 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 12 | 4.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 9 | WINNING WAYS B-/H2/TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 4 | 5.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 7 | 4.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | WILD WEST WING J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | ARES Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 8 | 3.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH B/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 11 | 21.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 12 | ABSOLUCOOL H/P H T Mo · C Fownes | H T Mo | C Fownes | 6 | 57.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | MELBOURNE HALL G van Niekerk · D J Hall | G van Niekerk | D J Hall | 2 | 39.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | SACRED TIMING K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 3 | 50.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 1 | 72.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | JOY N FUN LEGEND M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 9 | 49.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 3 | CEREFINO B/TT C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 10 | 54.0 | 8-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WILD WEST WING | 18.3% | 5.47 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | FLYING GENIUS | 18.1% | 5.53 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | ARES | 15.8% | 6.32 | 5 |
| 4 | 9 | WINNING WAYS | 11.2% | 8.96 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 9.4% | 10.67 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH | 7.2% | 13.98 | 6 |
| 7 | 12 | ABSOLUCOOL | 5.3% | 19.03 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | MELBOURNE HALL | 3.7% | 27.31 | 8 |
| 9 | 6 | JOY N FUN LEGEND | 3.4% | 29.67 | 11 |
| 10 | 7 | SACRED TIMING | 3.2% | 31.19 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | CEREFINO | 2.4% | 41.94 | 12 |
| 12 | 5 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN | 2.3% | 44.24 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 44.5
PLACE
1 17.5
9 15.5
10 15.5
QUINELLA
1,9 111
QUINELLA PLACE
1,9 45
1,10 39
9,10 37
TIERCE
1,9,10 669
TRIO
1,9,10 117
FIRST 4
1,8,9,10 268
QUARTET
1,9,10,8 5,628
1ST DOUBLE
4/1 198
4/9 26.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 21.5
A1 —
A3 —