跑馬地 · 2019-12-18
第 7場
2019-12-18跑馬地第7場，Class 3，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由A Badel策騎、D E Ferraris訓練的BEAR AGAIN勝出，贏出4。PARTY TOGETHER獲得亞軍；ACCLAIMED LIGHT獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。3.7倍大熱門GIFT OF LIFELINE跑獲第8名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | BEAR AGAIN 一路領先 SR 1.38.85 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 2 | 5.8 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | PARTY TOGETHER S De Sousa · L Ho | S De Sousa | L Ho | 7 | 5.6 | 4 |
| 3 | 12 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT 後段發力 B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 35.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | HAR HAR HEART 後段發力 K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 5 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | PERFECT PAIR 後段發力 CP1 J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 4 | 5.7 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT P-/TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 1 | 81.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | TRAVEL FIRST B/TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 6 | 41.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 7 | GIFT OF LIFELINE B C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 8 | 3.7 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | JOLLY HONOUR B/TT B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 11 | 6.8 | 7 |
| 10 | 8 | LOOKING GOOD B G van Niekerk · F C Lor | G van Niekerk | F C Lor | 3 | 8.2 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | CHAMP PATROL 後段發力 N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 12 | 228.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | ENZEMBLE XB/H1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 10 | 97.0 | 9-1/2 |
| — | 0 | JOLLY GENE · A S Cruz | — | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | PERFECT PAIR | 28.1% | 3.56 | 5 |
| 2 | 7 | GIFT OF LIFELINE | 16.6% | 6.03 | 8 |
| 3 | 4 | PARTY TOGETHER | 12.7% | 7.89 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | LOOKING GOOD | 11.6% | 8.62 | 10 |
| 5 | 10 | BEAR AGAIN | 9.9% | 10.11 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | HAR HAR HEART | 6.9% | 14.48 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | JOLLY HONOUR | 6.3% | 15.91 | 9 |
| 8 | 12 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT | 3.4% | 29.31 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | TRAVEL FIRST | 2.4% | 42.07 | 7 |
| 10 | 6 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT | 1.1% | 87.47 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | ENZEMBLE | 0.5% | 184.53 | 12 |
| 12 | 1 | CHAMP PATROL | 0.5% | 195.96 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 58.5
PLACE
4 20
10 20.5
12 73.5
QUINELLA
4,10 141.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,10 50.5
4,12 283
10,12 309.5
TIERCE
10,4,12 6,597
TRIO
4,10,12 1,174
FIRST 4
3,4,10,12 2,435
QUARTET
10,4,12,3 38,205
3 PICK 1
A2 16.5
A3 —
A1 —
全部彩池（另 3 項）
6TH DOUBLE
10/4 112
10/10 672.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,5,10/1,7,10/4,10,12 4,456,428
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,5,10/1,7,10/Any Combination 9,753