沙田 · 2020-01-01
第 10場
2020-01-01沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由T Piccone策騎、C S Shum訓練的CHARITY GO勝出，贏出HD。SMART PATCH獲得亞軍；ENZEMBLE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.7倍大熱門PACKING WARRIOR跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CHARITY GO 後段發力 H-/SR2 1.34.67 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） T Piccone · C S Shum | T Piccone | C S Shum | 13 | 25.0 | HD |
| 2 | 9 | SMART PATCH 後段發力 B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 6 | 3.8 | HD |
| 3 | 13 | ENZEMBLE 後段發力 H/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 11 | 150.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | CALIFORNIA DADDY TT1 A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 7 | 9.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | PACKING WARRIOR 後段發力 CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 3.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | I DO 後段發力 V/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 12 | 32.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | VINCY 後段發力 B/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 8 | 6.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | UNIVERSAL GO GO H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 2 | 44.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 14 | EZRA 後段發力 B/XB G van Niekerk · A T Millard | G van Niekerk | A T Millard | 14 | 6.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | JOLLY HONOUR B/TT C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 9 | 22.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | AMAZING LUCK 早段領放 B M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 17.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 1 | 97.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 10 | GO BALLISTIC SR N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 10 | 33.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 1 | DUCKETT'S GROVE P1 M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 4 | 62.0 | 7-3/4 |
| — | 0 | HELLO BEAUTY S De Sousa · J Moore | S De Sousa | J Moore | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | VINCY | 24.1% | 4.15 | 7 |
| 2 | 2 | PACKING WARRIOR | 17.3% | 5.78 | 5 |
| 3 | 9 | SMART PATCH | 13.6% | 7.35 | 2 |
| 4 | 14 | EZRA | 8.1% | 12.31 | 9 |
| 5 | 1 | DUCKETT'S GROVE | 6.7% | 14.86 | 14 |
| 6 | 8 | I DO | 5.1% | 19.73 | 6 |
| 7 | 11 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 4.9% | 20.34 | 8 |
| 8 | 12 | AMAZING LUCK | 4.9% | 20.47 | 11 |
| 9 | 5 | CHARITY GO | 4.4% | 22.70 | 1 |
| 10 | 7 | JOLLY HONOUR | 4.3% | 23.09 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | CALIFORNIA DADDY | 3.3% | 30.18 | 4 |
| 12 | 10 | GO BALLISTIC | 1.3% | 77.35 | 13 |
| 13 | 3 | CHUNG WAH SPIRIT | 1.1% | 90.67 | 12 |
| 14 | 13 | ENZEMBLE | 0.8% | 126.08 | 3 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 251
PLACE
5 67.5
9 17
13 316.5
QUINELLA
5,9 594.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 180.5
5,13 3,135
9,13 1,167.5
TIERCE
5,9,13 107,313
TRIO
5,9,13 22,845
FIRST 4
5,6,9,13 38,668
QUARTET
5,9,13,6 1,215,960
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 32.5
A2 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,12,13/5,9,13 2,484,500
9TH DOUBLE
13/5 5,915.5
13/9 420.5
SIX UP
5,11/6,11/7,8/5,8/4,13/5,9 1,326
11/6/8/8/13/5 461,277
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
8/13/5 27,679
8/13/9 896