沙田 · 2020-01-01
第 5場
2020-01-01沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、F C Lor訓練的JOYFUL HEART勝出，贏出SH。CIRCUIT THREE獲得亞軍；BETTER CHOICE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.3倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | JOYFUL HEART 後段發力 CP1/TT 1.22.15 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 2.3 | SH |
| 2 | 5 | CIRCUIT THREE 後段發力 B/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 12 | 27.0 | SH |
| 3 | 4 | BETTER CHOICE 後段發力 J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 5 | 5.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 13 | VITAL SPRING 後段發力 TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | SONIC FIGHTER 後段發力 B1 N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | SHOUSON B S De Sousa · J Moore | S De Sousa | J Moore | 7 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | WAR LORD PC- K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 2 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 1 | EMERALD SPUR 後段發力 CP/TT G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 11 | 6.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | VOYAGE STAR 早段領放 V/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 1 | 39.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 7 | SUNSHINE UNIVERSE B M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 8 | 31.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 14 | MY FAMILY K H Chan · Y S Tsui | K H Chan | Y S Tsui | 14 | 44.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | REGENCY POET XB1 A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 10 | 50.0 | 15-3/4 |
| 13 | 8 | MILLENNIUM DAWN V1/TT1 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 6 | 189.0 | 16 |
| 14 | 10 | FLYING EMPEROR H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 13 | 210.0 | 17-1/4 |
| — | 0 | DIGITAL TRIUMPH M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | SIMPLY FLUKE A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EMERALD SPUR | 19.3% | 5.17 | 8 |
| 2 | 4 | BETTER CHOICE | 17.4% | 5.75 | 3 |
| 3 | 11 | JOYFUL HEART | 14.7% | 6.82 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | WAR LORD | 9.1% | 11.03 | 7 |
| 5 | 5 | CIRCUIT THREE | 7.3% | 13.65 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | SHOUSON | 6.1% | 16.27 | 6 |
| 7 | 13 | VITAL SPRING | 6.1% | 16.27 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | SUNSHINE UNIVERSE | 5.1% | 19.69 | 10 |
| 9 | 12 | REGENCY POET | 3.9% | 25.78 | 12 |
| 10 | 3 | SONIC FIGHTER | 3.3% | 29.85 | 5 |
| 11 | 14 | MY FAMILY | 3.1% | 32.02 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | MILLENNIUM DAWN | 2.9% | 34.33 | 13 |
| 13 | 9 | VOYAGE STAR | 1.1% | 86.98 | 9 |
| 14 | 10 | FLYING EMPEROR | 0.4% | 244.90 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 23.5
PLACE
4 19.5
5 64
11 14
QUINELLA
5,11 311
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 215.5
4,11 30
5,11 108
TIERCE
11,5,4 1,848
TRIO
4,5,11 488
FIRST 4
4,5,11,13 720
QUARTET
11,5,4,13 12,259
3 PICK 1
A1 16.5
A3 —
A2 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
2/5 790.5
2/11 835.5