沙田 · 2020-01-01
第 4場
2020-01-01沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由N Callan策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的STARSHIP勝出，贏出1/2。LEAP OF FAITH獲得亞軍；PARTY EVERYDAY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.5倍大熱門LEAP OF FAITH跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | STARSHIP 後段發力 B 1.35.62 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 16.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | LEAP OF FAITH 後段發力 Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 3.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | PARTY EVERYDAY 後段發力 B/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz | T Piccone | A S Cruz | 7 | 108.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | VILLA FIONN 後段發力 B C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 10 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | SUNNY POWER 後段發力 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 14 | SPIRIT PATCH B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 8 | 133.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE H J Moreira · L Ho | J Moreira | L Ho | 6 | 6.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | WITNESS HUNTER B K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 9.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | JOY MASTER 後段發力 TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 5 | 7.6 | 5 |
| 10 | 13 | SAVVY SEVEN 後段發力 B/TT L Hewitson · J Moore | L Hewitson | J Moore | 14 | 33.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | VICTORY VISION M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 12 | 138.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | SHANGHAI DRAGON B M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 13 | 18.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 12 | SMILING SUCCESS 早段領放 B/TT H T Mo · K H Ting | H T Mo | K H Ting | 4 | 84.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 1 | TOUCH OF FAITH B1/SR1 A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 11 | 58.0 | 15-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE | 23.9% | 4.18 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | LEAP OF FAITH | 22.6% | 4.43 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | WITNESS HUNTER | 13.2% | 7.58 | 8 |
| 4 | 9 | JOY MASTER | 7.8% | 12.86 | 9 |
| 5 | 4 | VILLA FIONN | 6.9% | 14.56 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | SUNNY POWER | 6.3% | 15.91 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | STARSHIP | 5.3% | 18.96 | 1 |
| 8 | 10 | SHANGHAI DRAGON | 4.7% | 21.40 | 12 |
| 9 | 13 | SAVVY SEVEN | 2.3% | 43.44 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | SMILING SUCCESS | 1.7% | 57.99 | 13 |
| 11 | 7 | VICTORY VISION | 1.6% | 63.86 | 11 |
| 12 | 1 | TOUCH OF FAITH | 1.5% | 67.47 | 14 |
| 13 | 11 | PARTY EVERYDAY | 1.4% | 71.80 | 3 |
| 14 | 14 | SPIRIT PATCH | 1.0% | 104.97 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 164.5
PLACE
2 41
3 15.5
11 235.5
QUINELLA
2,3 350.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 108
2,11 2,357.5
3,11 728.5
TIERCE
2,3,11 61,197
TRIO
2,3,11 9,699
FIRST 4
2,3,4,11 7,028
QUARTET
2,3,11,4 288,769
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,6/2,3,11 53,745
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 37.5
A1 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
6/2 413
6/3 10.5