Sha Tin · 2020-01-01
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly CP1/TT 1.22.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 2.3 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | CIRCUIT THREE Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 12 | 27.0 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | BETTER CHOICE Closed strongly J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 5 | 5.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | VITAL SPRING Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | SONIC FIGHTER Closed strongly B1 N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | SHOUSON B S De Sousa · J Moore | S De Sousa | J Moore | 7 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | WAR LORD PC- K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 2 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | EMERALD SPUR Closed strongly CP/TT G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 11 | 6.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | VOYAGE STAR Led early V/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 1 | 39.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 0 | SUNSHINE UNIVERSE B M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 8 | 31.0 | 9 |
| 11 | 0 | MY FAMILY K H Chan · Y S Tsui | K H Chan | Y S Tsui | 14 | 44.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | REGENCY POET XB1 A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 10 | 50.0 | 15-3/4 |
| 13 | 0 | MILLENNIUM DAWN V1/TT1 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 6 | 189.0 | 16 |
| 14 | 0 | FLYING EMPEROR H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 13 | 210.0 | 17-1/4 |
| — | 0 | DIGITAL TRIUMPH M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | SIMPLY FLUKE A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. JOYFUL HEART, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with CIRCUIT THREE second and BETTER CHOICE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EMERALD SPUR | 19.3% | 5.17 | 8 |
| 2 | 0 | BETTER CHOICE | 17.4% | 5.75 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | JOYFUL HEART | 14.7% | 6.82 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | WAR LORD | 9.1% | 11.03 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | CIRCUIT THREE | 7.3% | 13.65 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | SHOUSON | 6.1% | 16.27 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | VITAL SPRING | 6.1% | 16.27 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | SUNSHINE UNIVERSE | 5.1% | 19.69 | 10 |
| 9 | 0 | REGENCY POET | 3.9% | 25.78 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | SONIC FIGHTER | 3.3% | 29.85 | 5 |
| 11 | 0 | MY FAMILY | 3.1% | 32.02 | 11 |
| 12 | 0 | MILLENNIUM DAWN | 2.9% | 34.33 | 13 |
| 13 | 0 | VOYAGE STAR | 1.1% | 86.98 | 9 |
| 14 | 0 | FLYING EMPEROR | 0.4% | 244.90 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 23.5
PLACE
4 19.5
5 64
11 14
QUINELLA
5,11 311
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 215.5
4,11 30
5,11 108
TIERCE
11,5,4 1,848
TRIO
4,5,11 488
FIRST 4
4,5,11,13 720
QUARTET
11,5,4,13 12,259
3 PICK 1
A1 16.5
A2 —
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
4TH DOUBLE
2/5 790.5
2/11 835.5