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Sha Tin · 2020-01-01

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY MORE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with GOOD BEAUTY second and TEAM SPIRIT third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 LUCKY MORE 1.09.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 4 2.3 1
2 5 GOOD BEAUTY CP/TT A Badel · J Moore 1 9.3 1
3 3 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT J Moreira · W Y So 3 12.0 1-3/4
4 2 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE M F Poon · D J Hall 8 2.4 3-1/4
5 9 CALIFORNIA TURBO B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 15.0 4
6 10 TAILOR MADE H N Wong · C W Chang 5 179.0 6-1/2
7 11 DIAMOND KING V/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 7 27.0 7
8 1 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING H- C Schofield · K H Ting 11 37.0 7-3/4
9 12 EVER LAUGH B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 10 96.0 7-3/4
10 6 LONDON LUCKYSTAR B/SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 48.0 7-3/4
11 4 HERCULES T H So · C H Yip 2 105.0 8
12 7 LUCKY PUZZLE G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 9 54.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY MORE2. GOOD BEAUTY+1L3. TEAM SPIRIT+1.75L4. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+3.25L5. CALIFORNIA TURBO+4L6. TAILOR MADE+6.5L7. DIAMOND KING+7L8. CANTSTOPTHEFEELING+7.75L9. EVER LAUGH+7.75L10. LONDON LUCKYSTAR+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick LUCKY MORE (42.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 LUCKY MORE 42.1% 2.38 1
2 3 TEAM SPIRIT 16.8% 5.96 3
3 2 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 16.5% 6.05 4
4 5 GOOD BEAUTY 9.9% 10.11 2
5 9 CALIFORNIA TURBO 5.6% 17.87 5
6 7 LUCKY PUZZLE 2.9% 34.54 12
7 11 DIAMOND KING 1.7% 58.38 7
8 1 CANTSTOPTHEFEELING 1.5% 66.43 8
9 6 LONDON LUCKYSTAR 1.3% 78.95 10
10 12 EVER LAUGH 0.7% 138.78 9
11 4 HERCULES 0.6% 162.18 11
12 10 TAILOR MADE 0.4% 227.46 6
LUCKY MORE — wonTEAM SPIRITQUADRUPLE DOUBLEGOOD BEAUTYCALIFORNIA TURBOLUCKY PUZZLEDIAMOND KINGCANTSTOPTHEFEELINGLONDON LUCKYSTAREVER LAUGHHERCULESTAILOR MADE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 23.5

PLACE

3 24

5 19.5

8 12

QUINELLA

5,8 84

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 81

3,8 40

5,8 32.5

TIERCE

8,5,3 750

TRIO

3,5,8 211

FIRST 4

2,3,5,8 85

QUARTET

8,5,3,2 2,132

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 12

A3

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

8/5 27

8/8 42