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Sha Tin · 2020-01-01

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. LOOKING GOOD, ridden by K H Chan and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with ASSIMILATE second and BEAUTY LOYAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite ASSIMILATE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 LOOKING GOOD Closed strongly B 1.21.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · F C Lor 14 41.0 SH
2 4 ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · K H Ting 4 3.6 SH
3 12 BEAUTY LOYAL Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 6 6.7 HD
4 2 MY ALLY TT A Badel · J Moore 11 14.0 1-3/4
5 10 HINCHINLOVE Led early B2/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 10 40.0 1-3/4
6 7 SEATTLE CHOICE Closed strongly K Teetan · A T Millard 2 6.6 2-1/4
7 1 FOLLOW ME Closed strongly TT J Moreira · J Size 1 4.2 2-1/4
8 14 FARSHAD B/SR S De Sousa · Y S Tsui 8 13.0 3-1/2
9 3 REEL BIZZY Closed strongly B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum 3 7.5 6
10 11 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · P O'Sullivan 13 48.0 6-1/4
11 5 SMILING CITY SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 78.0 8-1/4
12 9 UNITE SPIRIT Closed strongly XB T Piccone · D E Ferraris 5 73.0 8-1/2
13 6 DIVINE UNICORN TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui 7 129.0 8-3/4
14 8 RAKKIKYATTO C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 42.0 9-1/2
0 MY DARLING · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOOKING GOOD2. ASSIMILATE+0.1L3. BEAUTY LOYAL+0.2L4. MY ALLY+1.75L5. HINCHINLOVE+1.75L6. SEATTLE CHOICE+2.25L7. FOLLOW ME+2.25L8. FARSHAD+3.5L9. REEL BIZZY+6L10. PAKISTAN FRIEND+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ASSIMILATE (21.0%) finished 2nd — the winner LOOKING GOOD was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 ASSIMILATE 21.0% 4.76 2
2 1 FOLLOW ME 20.9% 4.78 7
3 12 BEAUTY LOYAL 10.2% 9.76 3
4 2 MY ALLY 7.8% 12.79 4
5 14 FARSHAD 7.2% 13.91 8
6 3 REEL BIZZY 7.2% 13.92 9
7 7 SEATTLE CHOICE 7.0% 14.21 6
8 13 LOOKING GOOD 4.4% 22.94 1
9 8 RAKKIKYATTO 3.7% 27.07 14
10 11 PAKISTAN FRIEND 2.6% 38.52 10
11 6 DIVINE UNICORN 2.5% 40.72 13
12 10 HINCHINLOVE 2.4% 41.18 5
13 5 SMILING CITY 1.7% 58.36 11
14 9 UNITE SPIRIT 1.4% 74.04 12
ASSIMILATEFOLLOW MEBEAUTY LOYALMY ALLYFARSHADREEL BIZZYSEATTLE CHOICELOOKING GOOD — wonRAKKIKYATTOPAKISTAN FRIENDDIVINE UNICORNHINCHINLOVESMILING CITYUNITE SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 413

PLACE

4 13.5

12 24

13 96

QUINELLA

4,13 710

QUINELLA PLACE

4,12 46.5

4,13 201

12,13 309.5

TIERCE

13,4,12 12,518

TRIO

4,12,13 1,188

FIRST 4

2,4,12,13 4,273

QUARTET

13,4,12,2 139,466

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 29

A2

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

8/4 16.5

8/13 846