Sha Tin · 2020-01-01
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. IRON BOY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with SPEEDY DRAGON second and COLONEL third. The 1.6 favourite DUBLIN STAR finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | IRON BOY B/XB 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 3 | 7.5 | N |
| 2 | 8 | SPEEDY DRAGON B2 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 11 | 17.0 | N |
| 3 | 4 | COLONEL B T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 2 | 9.2 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | NICE KICK PC S De Sousa · J Size | S De Sousa | J Size | 5 | 9.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | DUBLIN STAR H1 J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 7 | 1.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | MISSION SMART M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 8 | 27.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | UNITED WE STAND B1/TT1 A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 1 | 21.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | WONDER WIN H/P T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 4 | 226.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | EL JEFE B/TT N Callan · C H Yip | N Callan | C H Yip | 6 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | SKY TREASURE H K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 12 | 39.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | JIANGXI STAMINA TT1 C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 10 | 75.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | HARBOUR ALERT B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 9 | 77.0 | 18-1/2 |
| — | 0 | BRAVE POWER C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | DUBLIN STAR | 18.4% | 5.43 | 5 |
| 2 | 11 | NICE KICK | 18.1% | 5.53 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | COLONEL | 18.1% | 5.54 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | IRON BOY | 16.4% | 6.08 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 6.4% | 15.55 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | JIANGXI STAMINA | 5.9% | 16.97 | 11 |
| 7 | 9 | EL JEFE | 4.8% | 20.78 | 9 |
| 8 | 10 | UNITED WE STAND | 4.4% | 22.57 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | MISSION SMART | 2.8% | 35.89 | 6 |
| 10 | 2 | SKY TREASURE | 2.6% | 38.21 | 10 |
| 11 | 1 | HARBOUR ALERT | 1.3% | 77.94 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | WONDER WIN | 0.7% | 138.16 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 75.5
PLACE
4 20
6 19
8 38.5
QUINELLA
6,8 367
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 75.5
4,8 142.5
6,8 102.5
TIERCE
6,8,4 4,482
TRIO
4,6,8 709
FIRST 4
4,6,8,11 564
QUARTET
6,8,4,11 13,134
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13.5
A2 —