Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-01-01

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-01 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CHARITY GO, ridden by T Piccone and trained by C S Shum, won by HD, with SMART PATCH second and ENZEMBLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite PACKING WARRIOR finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.34.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 CHARITY GO Closed strongly H-/SR2 1.34.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T Piccone · C S Shum 13 25.0 HD
2 9 SMART PATCH Closed strongly B Z Purton · K L Man 6 3.8 HD
3 13 ENZEMBLE Closed strongly H/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 150.0 1
4 6 CALIFORNIA DADDY TT1 A Badel · R Gibson 7 9.4 1-1/2
5 2 PACKING WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 3 3.7 1-3/4
6 8 I DO Closed strongly V/TT K C Leung · W Y So 12 32.0 2
7 4 VINCY Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 8 6.4 2-1/2
8 11 UNIVERSAL GO GO H N Wong · K W Lui 2 44.0 3-1/2
9 14 EZRA Closed strongly B/XB G van Niekerk · A T Millard 14 6.1 4-1/4
10 7 JOLLY HONOUR B/TT C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 9 22.0 5-3/4
11 12 AMAZING LUCK Led early B M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 5 17.0 6-3/4
12 3 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT TT T H So · C H Yip 1 97.0 7
13 10 GO BALLISTIC SR N Callan · D E Ferraris 10 33.0 7-1/2
14 1 DUCKETT'S GROVE P1 M F Poon · J Size 4 62.0 7-3/4
0 HELLO BEAUTY S De Sousa · J Moore

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY GO2. SMART PATCH+0.2L3. ENZEMBLE+1L4. CALIFORNIA DADDY+1.5L5. PACKING WARRIOR+1.75L6. I DO+2L7. VINCY+2.5L8. UNIVERSAL GO GO+3.5L9. EZRA+4.25L10. JOLLY HONOUR+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick VINCY (24.1%) finished 7th — the winner CHARITY GO was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 VINCY 24.1% 4.15 7
2 2 PACKING WARRIOR 17.3% 5.78 5
3 9 SMART PATCH 13.6% 7.35 2
4 14 EZRA 8.1% 12.31 9
5 1 DUCKETT'S GROVE 6.7% 14.86 14
6 8 I DO 5.1% 19.73 6
7 11 UNIVERSAL GO GO 4.9% 20.34 8
8 12 AMAZING LUCK 4.9% 20.47 11
9 5 CHARITY GO 4.4% 22.70 1
10 7 JOLLY HONOUR 4.3% 23.09 10
11 6 CALIFORNIA DADDY 3.3% 30.18 4
12 10 GO BALLISTIC 1.3% 77.35 13
13 3 CHUNG WAH SPIRIT 1.1% 90.67 12
14 13 ENZEMBLE 0.8% 126.08 3
VINCYPACKING WARRIORSMART PATCHEZRADUCKETT'S GROVEI DOUNIVERSAL GO GOAMAZING LUCKCHARITY GO — wonJOLLY HONOURCALIFORNIA DADDYGO BALLISTICCHUNG WAH SPIRITENZEMBLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 251

PLACE

5 67.5

9 17

13 316.5

QUINELLA

5,9 594.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 180.5

5,13 3,135

9,13 1,167.5

TIERCE

5,9,13 107,313

TRIO

5,9,13 22,845

FIRST 4

5,6,9,13 38,668

QUARTET

5,9,13,6 1,215,960

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 32.5

A2

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,12,13/5,9,13 2,484,500

9TH DOUBLE

13/5 5,915.5

13/9 420.5

SIX UP

5,11/6,11/7,8/5,8/4,13/5,9 1,326

11/6/8/8/13/5 461,277

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

8/13/5 27,679

8/13/9 896