沙田 · 2020-01-05
第 4場
2020-01-05沙田第4場，Class 5，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、A S Cruz訓練的SUPREME WITNESS勝出，贏出N。SEIZE THE SPIRIT獲得亞軍；WINWIN THIRTYTHREE獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。2.5倍大熱門THE FULL BLOOM跑獲第10名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SUPREME WITNESS 一路領先 B/TT 1.23.07 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 12 | 13.0 | N |
| 2 | 10 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT 後段發力 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 3 | 18.0 | N |
| 3 | 3 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 後段發力 B C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 2 | 4.7 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 14 | TRIUMPHANT LORD 後段發力 TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 14 | 109.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | SHINEALOT 後段發力 A Badel · P O'Sullivan | A Badel | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 16.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | GENERAL TRUMP 後段發力 TT S De Sousa · T P Yung | S De Sousa | T P Yung | 4 | 6.3 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | ART OF RAW 後段發力 H2/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 9 | 44.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | SUPERB AGILITY H/V H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 1 | 142.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | CAPTAIN BOSS 後段發力 SR/TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 13 | 27.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 2 | THE FULL BLOOM Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 7 | 2.5 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 13 | TIGERLAD B-/V1 K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 5 | 75.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | FAIRY FLOSS B/H C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 6 | 31.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 12 | SOCCER MASTER B/TT G van Niekerk · W Y So | G van Niekerk | W Y So | 8 | 13.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 9 | GOLDEN CANNON B/H/XB T Piccone · K W Lui | T Piccone | K W Lui | 11 | 16.0 | 11 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | THE FULL BLOOM | 17.6% | 5.67 | 10 |
| 2 | 7 | SUPREME WITNESS | 16.5% | 6.07 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | GENERAL TRUMP | 13.2% | 7.57 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 11.0% | 9.13 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | SHINEALOT | 7.6% | 13.20 | 5 |
| 6 | 12 | SOCCER MASTER | 7.5% | 13.30 | 13 |
| 7 | 9 | GOLDEN CANNON | 7.0% | 14.33 | 14 |
| 8 | 11 | CAPTAIN BOSS | 5.0% | 19.89 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 | FAIRY FLOSS | 4.1% | 24.29 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT | 3.4% | 29.00 | 2 |
| 11 | 14 | TRIUMPHANT LORD | 2.4% | 42.36 | 4 |
| 12 | 8 | ART OF RAW | 2.3% | 43.34 | 7 |
| 13 | 13 | TIGERLAD | 1.2% | 80.60 | 11 |
| 14 | 6 | SUPERB AGILITY | 1.2% | 86.67 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 131
PLACE
3 17.5
7 29
10 43
QUINELLA
7,10 860.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 102
3,10 115
7,10 274.5
TIERCE
7,10,3 7,376
TRIO
3,7,10 934
FIRST 4
3,7,10,14 20,626
QUARTET
7,10,3,14 394,599
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,13/3,7,10 101,336
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 30
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
4/7 666.5
4/10 149