沙田 · 2020-01-05
第 7場
2020-01-05沙田第7場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由S De Sousa策騎、P F Yiu訓練的ENCORE BOY勝出，贏出1-1/4。MEGA HEART獲得亞軍；RED DESERT獲得季軍。2.3倍大熱門ELITE PATCH跑獲第11名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ENCORE BOY B 1.09.09 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 8 | 21.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | MEGA HEART XB/TT G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 4 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | RED DESERT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 9.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | FRUSTRATED B M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 10 | 61.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | SUNNY BOY CP Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 7 | 3.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | AQUILA C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 9 | 6.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | SILVER FIG K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 12 | 20.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | THE WEATHERMAN P1 K C Leung · D J Whyte | K C Leung | D J Whyte | 1 | 98.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | REGENCY BO BO B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 5 | 19.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | CHAMPION PRIDE TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 11 | 147.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | ELITE PATCH B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 2.3 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | MONTREAL B/TT N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 2 | 91.0 | 14-1/2 |
| — | 0 | DRAGON PIONEER · Y S Tsui | — | Y S Tsui | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | ELITE PATCH | 16.3% | 6.13 | 11 |
| 2 | 1 | SUNNY BOY | 14.8% | 6.76 | 5 |
| 3 | 9 | AQUILA | 11.4% | 8.80 | 6 |
| 4 | 6 | REGENCY BO BO | 10.9% | 9.18 | 9 |
| 5 | 3 | RED DESERT | 10.5% | 9.54 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | SILVER FIG | 10.0% | 10.02 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | ENCORE BOY | 8.9% | 11.29 | 1 |
| 8 | 10 | MEGA HEART | 5.9% | 16.82 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | FRUSTRATED | 4.9% | 20.27 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | MONTREAL | 3.2% | 30.96 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | CHAMPION PRIDE | 1.8% | 55.45 | 10 |
| 12 | 8 | THE WEATHERMAN | 1.4% | 71.91 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 217
PLACE
2 53.5
3 23
10 31.5
QUINELLA
2,10 1,243
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 219
2,10 296
3,10 136.5
TIERCE
2,10,3 17,596
TRIO
2,3,10 2,284
FIRST 4
2,3,10,11 21,011
QUARTET
2,10,3,11 470,306
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,12/2,3,10 61,510
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 53
A1 —
6TH DOUBLE
12/2 1,143.5
12/10 100.5