Sha Tin · 2020-01-05

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-05 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ENCORE BOY, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with MEGA HEART second and RED DESERT third. The 2.3 favourite ELITE PATCH finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.09.09

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	ENCORE BOY B 1.09.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P F Yiu	S De Sousa	P F Yiu	8	131 lb	21.0	1-1/4
2	10	MEGA HEART XB/TT G van Niekerk · C W Chang	G van Niekerk	C W Chang	4	121 lb	13.0	1-1/4
3	3	RED DESERT J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	3	131 lb	9.7	2-1/2
4	11	FRUSTRATED B M L Yeung · F C Lor	M L Yeung	F C Lor	10	120 lb	61.0	3-1/2
5	1	SUNNY BOY CP Z Purton · J Moore	Z Purton	J Moore	7	133 lb	3.7	3-1/2
6	9	AQUILA C Schofield · K H Ting	C Schofield	K H Ting	9	122 lb	6.7	4-3/4
7	7	SILVER FIG K Teetan · A T Millard	K Teetan	A T Millard	12	127 lb	20.0	5
8	8	THE WEATHERMAN P1 K C Leung · D J Whyte	K C Leung	D J Whyte	1	123 lb	98.0	5-1/2
9	6	REGENCY BO BO B/TT A Badel · C S Shum	A Badel	C S Shum	5	130 lb	19.0	5-1/2
10	12	CHAMPION PRIDE TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris	L Hewitson	D E Ferraris	11	116 lb	147.0	6-1/2
11	4	ELITE PATCH B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	6	130 lb	2.3	7-1/4
12	5	MONTREAL B/TT N Callan · C Fownes	N Callan	C Fownes	2	130 lb	91.0	14-1/2
—	0	DRAGON PIONEER · Y S Tsui	—	Y S Tsui	—	123 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick ELITE PATCH (16.3%) finished 11th — the winner ENCORE BOY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	ELITE PATCH	16.3%	6.13	11	2.3
2	1	SUNNY BOY	14.8%	6.76	5	3.7
3	9	AQUILA	11.4%	8.80	6	6.7
4	6	REGENCY BO BO	10.9%	9.18	9	19.0
5	3	RED DESERT	10.5%	9.54	3	9.7
6	7	SILVER FIG	10.0%	10.02	7	20.0
7	2	ENCORE BOY	8.9%	11.29	1	21.0
8	10	MEGA HEART	5.9%	16.82	2	13.0
9	11	FRUSTRATED	4.9%	20.27	4	61.0
10	5	MONTREAL	3.2%	30.96	12	91.0
11	12	CHAMPION PRIDE	1.8%	55.45	10	147.0
12	8	THE WEATHERMAN	1.4%	71.91	8	98.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 217

PLACE

2 53.5

3 23

10 31.5

QUINELLA

2,10 1,243

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 219

2,10 296

3,10 136.5

TIERCE

2,10,3 17,596

TRIO

2,3,10 2,284

FIRST 4

2,3,10,11 21,011

QUARTET

2,10,3,11 470,306

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,12/2,3,10 61,510

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 53

A1 —

6TH DOUBLE

12/2 1,143.5

12/10 100.5

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