Sha Tin · 2020-01-05
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-05 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. EVER STRONG, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K L Man, won by 3/4, with EXCEL DELIGHT second and SUPER FUN third. The 3.8 favourite MR MAGELLAN finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | EVER STRONG P 1.09.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 5 | 5.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | EXCEL DELIGHT H J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 8 | 6.1 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | SUPER FUN H N Callan · C H Yip | N Callan | C H Yip | 1 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | MR MAGELLAN B S De Sousa · Y S Tsui | S De Sousa | Y S Tsui | 2 | 3.8 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | NICE FANDANGO H/XB/B2 H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 11 | 18.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | DEMONS ROCK B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 9 | 19.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | CALLING THE SHOTS B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 12 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | SUNNY MAJOR B/H A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 7 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | SUN FOXHUNTER B T Piccone · K W Lui | T Piccone | K W Lui | 4 | 55.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | LA BOMBA XB-/B K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 6 | 7.7 | 10-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | ROCHFORD V H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 10 | 9.2 | 15-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | BANDY B-/V1 M L Yeung · R Gibson | M L Yeung | R Gibson | 3 | 102.0 | 16-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MR MAGELLAN | 30.6% | 3.27 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | EXCEL DELIGHT | 19.8% | 5.06 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | CALLING THE SHOTS | 10.1% | 9.89 | 7 |
| 4 | 7 | LA BOMBA | 9.3% | 10.78 | 10 |
| 5 | 6 | DEMONS ROCK | 7.4% | 13.48 | 6 |
| 6 | 9 | ROCHFORD | 7.2% | 13.99 | 11 |
| 7 | 8 | SUPER FUN | 5.0% | 20.07 | 3 |
| 8 | 4 | EVER STRONG | 3.3% | 29.91 | 1 |
| 9 | 3 | NICE FANDANGO | 2.6% | 38.69 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | SUNNY MAJOR | 2.2% | 45.30 | 8 |
| 11 | 10 | SUN FOXHUNTER | 1.6% | 63.29 | 9 |
| 12 | 11 | BANDY | 1.0% | 97.98 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 54.5
PLACE
1 21.5
4 18.5
8 43
QUINELLA
1,4 197.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 77
1,8 159.5
4,8 163.5
TIERCE
4,1,8 3,401
TRIO
1,4,8 855
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 554
QUARTET
4,1,8,2 11,669
1ST DOUBLE
12/1 189
12/4 741.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 23.5
A1 —
A3 —