Sha Tin · 2020-01-05
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-05 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NOBLE STEED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with MONICA second and BIG FORTUNE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite STAR OF YUEN LONG finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | NOBLE STEED Closed strongly 1.22.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 4 | 14.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | MONICA Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · J Moore | J Moreira | J Moore | 8 | 5.3 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | BIG FORTUNE B/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 9 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | MERRYGOWIN Closed strongly B T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 214.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | LAKESHORE EAGLE Closed strongly K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 6 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | MR ALDAN B/TT S De Sousa · A S Cruz | S De Sousa | A S Cruz | 5 | 9.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | STAR OF YUEN LONG C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 2 | 3.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | PICKEN A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 11 | 23.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | HAPPY FORCE Led early B M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 10 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | THRILLED SR C Schofield · T P Yung | C Schofield | T P Yung | 1 | 62.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | FLYING SWORD Closed strongly H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 13 | 143.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | SIMPLE ELEGANT V G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 7 | 3.8 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 13 | JOYFUL MOMENTS B- H T Mo · R Gibson | H T Mo | R Gibson | 12 | 112.0 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SIMPLE ELEGANT | 25.1% | 3.99 | 12 |
| 2 | 6 | MONICA | 13.4% | 7.44 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | BIG FORTUNE | 12.6% | 7.93 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | STAR OF YUEN LONG | 11.9% | 8.37 | 7 |
| 5 | 10 | MR ALDAN | 7.1% | 14.06 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | PICKEN | 7.0% | 14.30 | 8 |
| 7 | 4 | LAKESHORE EAGLE | 6.8% | 14.65 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | NOBLE STEED | 6.1% | 16.28 | 1 |
| 9 | 11 | HAPPY FORCE | 4.3% | 23.28 | 9 |
| 10 | 13 | JOYFUL MOMENTS | 2.1% | 47.44 | 13 |
| 11 | 5 | THRILLED | 2.0% | 51.24 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | MERRYGOWIN | 0.8% | 130.89 | 4 |
| 13 | 9 | FLYING SWORD | 0.7% | 138.12 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 140
PLACE
2 38.5
6 18
8 32.5
QUINELLA
2,6 399.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 120.5
2,8 185
6,8 100
TIERCE
2,6,8 6,994
TRIO
2,6,8 1,118
FIRST 4
2,6,8,12 18,070
QUARTET
2,6,8,12 356,055
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 33
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
2/2 2,896
2/6 203