Sha Tin · 2020-01-05
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-05 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CHEERFUL STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with GOD OF DRAGON second and HAPPY WIN WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly CP/TT 1.48.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 3.4 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | GOD OF DRAGON Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 1 | 4.6 | SH |
| 3 | 5 | HAPPY WIN WIN Closed strongly XB/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 6 | 8.9 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | LONDON HALL Closed strongly B J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 10 | 4.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | KING'S MAN Closed strongly V N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 12 | 19.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 9 | 50.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | AMAZING SATCHMO B K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 7 | 19.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | MISTER MONTE Led early B S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 8 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | GOOD DAYS Closed strongly B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 14 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | FAMILY LEADER B/H K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 5 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 13 | AEROFLASH B- L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan | L Hewitson | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 97.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | SHANGHAI RUSKY H M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 2 | 149.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | DYNASTA B M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 13 | 52.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 14 | 11 | JOYFUL FAMILY K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 11 | 183.0 | 23-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LONDON HALL | 22.5% | 4.45 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | CHEERFUL STAR | 19.2% | 5.21 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | GOD OF DRAGON | 11.1% | 9.01 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 10.6% | 9.45 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | AMAZING SATCHMO | 8.2% | 12.23 | 7 |
| 6 | 8 | MISTER MONTE | 6.5% | 15.49 | 8 |
| 7 | 1 | KING'S MAN | 5.7% | 17.63 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | GOOD DAYS | 4.5% | 22.01 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | DYNASTA | 3.7% | 26.79 | 13 |
| 10 | 6 | BULLISH GLORY | 3.5% | 28.43 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | FAMILY LEADER | 2.4% | 41.17 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | JOYFUL FAMILY | 0.8% | 132.52 | 14 |
| 13 | 14 | SHANGHAI RUSKY | 0.7% | 139.93 | 12 |
| 14 | 13 | AEROFLASH | 0.7% | 152.29 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 34
PLACE
2 17.5
5 30.5
12 15.5
QUINELLA
2,12 113
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 75
2,12 41
5,12 76.5
TIERCE
12,2,5 1,232
TRIO
2,5,12 185
FIRST 4
2,3,5,12 149
QUARTET
12,2,5,3 3,177
3 PICK 1
A1 19.5
A3 —
A2 —
All pools (3 more)
5TH DOUBLE
1/2 12.5
1/12 63
TRIPLE TRIO
3,7,10/1,2,3/2,5,12 446,167
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,7,10/1,2,3/Any Combination 1,579