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Sha Tin · 2020-01-05

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-05 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY LEGACY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with HAPPY FUN second and DECRYPT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite HAPPY FUN finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 BEAUTY LEGACY Closed strongly H1/TT1 1.21.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 12 9.0 1/2
2 10 HAPPY FUN Led early B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum 5 2.9 1/2
3 1 DECRYPT Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor 9 4.7 2
4 11 TAKING AIM Closed strongly S De Sousa · J Moore 3 10.0 2-1/4
5 9 STAR SHINE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 14.0 2-1/2
6 6 MR CROISSANT CP A Badel · W Y So 6 6.8 2-1/2
7 7 RACING FIGHTER Closed strongly TT T H So · C H Yip 2 145.0 3
8 12 GOLDEN SPECTRUM TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz 1 25.0 5-1/2
9 2 FORTUNE BOOTH Closed strongly PC-/CP2 T Piccone · J Moore 10 24.0 5-1/2
10 14 BEAUTY RUSH B- C Schofield · J Size 11 13.0 6
11 13 TELECOM PUMA TT L Hewitson · K H Ting 14 179.0 8
12 4 HELENA BABY N Callan · J Moore 8 45.0 9-1/2
13 8 MR SO AND SO TT K C Leung · C W Chang 4 76.0 11
14 5 JOYFUL TRINITY M F Poon · C Fownes 13 29.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY LEGACY2. HAPPY FUN+0.5L3. DECRYPT+2L4. TAKING AIM+2.25L5. STAR SHINE+2.5L6. MR CROISSANT+2.5L7. RACING FIGHTER+3L8. GOLDEN SPECTRUM+5.5L9. FORTUNE BOOTH+5.5L10. BEAUTY RUSH+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BEAUTY LEGACY (25.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BEAUTY LEGACY 25.4% 3.94 1
2 10 HAPPY FUN 14.8% 6.77 2
3 1 DECRYPT 13.9% 7.17 3
4 6 MR CROISSANT 12.4% 8.05 6
5 14 BEAUTY RUSH 6.6% 15.08 10
6 12 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 4.6% 21.74 8
7 4 HELENA BABY 3.9% 25.85 12
8 9 STAR SHINE 3.8% 26.42 5
9 11 TAKING AIM 3.8% 26.61 4
10 5 JOYFUL TRINITY 3.6% 28.16 14
11 2 FORTUNE BOOTH 3.4% 29.06 9
12 8 MR SO AND SO 1.8% 55.57 13
13 13 TELECOM PUMA 1.1% 90.82 11
14 7 RACING FIGHTER 1.0% 103.91 7
BEAUTY LEGACY — wonHAPPY FUNDECRYPTMR CROISSANTBEAUTY RUSHGOLDEN SPECTRUMHELENA BABYSTAR SHINETAKING AIMJOYFUL TRINITYFORTUNE BOOTHMR SO AND SOTELECOM PUMARACING FIGHTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 90.5

PLACE

1 19

3 27

10 14.5

QUINELLA

3,10 128.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 72

1,10 34

3,10 49

TIERCE

3,10,1 1,229

TRIO

1,3,10 172

FIRST 4

1,3,10,11 374

QUARTET

3,10,1,11 10,188

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 29

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,8,14/1,3,10 24,402

9TH DOUBLE

3/3 189.5

3/10 20

SIX UP

1,2/2,12/2,10/2,6/3,14/3,10 4,771

1/12/2/2/3/3 2,179,157

2 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

2/3/3 3,917

2/3/10 384