沙田 · 2020-01-05
第 6場
2020-01-05沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、F C Lor訓練的CHEERFUL STAR勝出，贏出SH。GOD OF DRAGON獲得亞軍；HAPPY WIN WIN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以3.4倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | CHEERFUL STAR 後段發力 CP/TT 1.48.11 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 3.4 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | GOD OF DRAGON 後段發力 H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 1 | 4.6 | SH |
| 3 | 5 | HAPPY WIN WIN 後段發力 XB/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 6 | 8.9 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | LONDON HALL 後段發力 B J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 10 | 4.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | KING'S MAN 後段發力 V N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 12 | 19.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | BULLISH GLORY 後段發力 H C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 9 | 50.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | AMAZING SATCHMO B K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 7 | 19.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | MISTER MONTE 早段領放 B S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 8 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | GOOD DAYS 後段發力 B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 14 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | FAMILY LEADER B/H K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 5 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 13 | AEROFLASH B- L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan | L Hewitson | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 97.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | SHANGHAI RUSKY H M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 2 | 149.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | DYNASTA B M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 13 | 52.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 14 | 11 | JOYFUL FAMILY K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 11 | 183.0 | 23-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LONDON HALL | 22.5% | 4.45 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | CHEERFUL STAR | 19.2% | 5.21 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | GOD OF DRAGON | 11.1% | 9.01 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 10.6% | 9.45 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | AMAZING SATCHMO | 8.2% | 12.23 | 7 |
| 6 | 8 | MISTER MONTE | 6.5% | 15.49 | 8 |
| 7 | 1 | KING'S MAN | 5.7% | 17.63 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | GOOD DAYS | 4.5% | 22.01 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | DYNASTA | 3.7% | 26.79 | 13 |
| 10 | 6 | BULLISH GLORY | 3.5% | 28.43 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | FAMILY LEADER | 2.4% | 41.17 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | JOYFUL FAMILY | 0.8% | 132.52 | 14 |
| 13 | 14 | SHANGHAI RUSKY | 0.7% | 139.93 | 12 |
| 14 | 13 | AEROFLASH | 0.7% | 152.29 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 34
PLACE
2 17.5
5 30.5
12 15.5
QUINELLA
2,12 113
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 75
2,12 41
5,12 76.5
TIERCE
12,2,5 1,232
TRIO
2,5,12 185
FIRST 4
2,3,5,12 149
QUARTET
12,2,5,3 3,177
3 PICK 1
A1 19.5
A3 —
A2 —
全部彩池（另 3 項）
5TH DOUBLE
1/2 12.5
1/12 63
TRIPLE TRIO
3,7,10/1,2,3/2,5,12 446,167
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,7,10/1,2,3/Any Combination 1,579