沙田 · 2020-02-02
第 4場
2020-02-02沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、F C Lor訓練的JOYFUL HEART勝出，贏出1-1/4。CASIMIRO獲得亞軍；HINYUEN SWIFTNESS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.1倍大熱門CASIMIRO跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | JOYFUL HEART 後段發力 CP/TT 1.21.70 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 12 | 3.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 14 | CASIMIRO 後段發力 K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 3.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | HINYUEN SWIFTNESS B/TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 9 | 48.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON CP-/B1/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 3 | 64.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 13 | BEST FOR YOU 後段發力 B G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 13 | 31.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | CIRCUIT HASSLER 後段發力 B/H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 10 | 4.3 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | ADONIS H C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 1 | 8.6 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | SPEEDY DRAGON 後段發力 B S De Sousa · D J Hall | S De Sousa | D J Hall | 8 | 29.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | VIVA COUNCIL 早段領放 V M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 2 | 18.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE 後段發力 B-/H- A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 11 | 28.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | JOY MASTER 後段發力 TT M F Poon · C Fownes | M F Poon | C Fownes | 4 | 57.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | CARE FREE PRINCE B L Hewitson · K L Man | L Hewitson | K L Man | 5 | 24.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | HERE COMES TED B1 N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 14 | 70.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 1 | MARQULA B/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 6 | 69.0 | 26-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | JOYFUL HEART | 22.2% | 4.51 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | CIRCUIT HASSLER | 20.9% | 4.79 | 6 |
| 3 | 10 | ADONIS | 12.4% | 8.09 | 7 |
| 4 | 14 | CASIMIRO | 7.7% | 12.97 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | JOY MASTER | 5.6% | 18.00 | 11 |
| 6 | 6 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 5.3% | 18.85 | 8 |
| 7 | 9 | HERE COMES TED | 4.8% | 20.85 | 13 |
| 8 | 13 | BEST FOR YOU | 4.5% | 22.00 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE | 3.7% | 26.97 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | CARE FREE PRINCE | 3.6% | 28.07 | 12 |
| 11 | 1 | MARQULA | 3.0% | 33.48 | 14 |
| 12 | 8 | VIVA COUNCIL | 2.4% | 41.66 | 9 |
| 13 | 11 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON | 2.3% | 43.58 | 4 |
| 14 | 5 | HINYUEN SWIFTNESS | 1.8% | 57.12 | 3 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 37.5
PLACE
3 13
5 119
14 14
QUINELLA
3,14 80.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 226.5
3,14 32.5
5,14 261.5
TIERCE
3,14,5 3,952
TRIO
3,5,14 998
FIRST 4
3,5,11,14 9,643
QUARTET
3,14,5,11 104,801
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,8/3,5,14 41,056
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 23
3RD DOUBLE
8/3 320.5
8/14 30