沙田 · 2020-02-02
第 3場
2020-02-02沙田第3場，Class 5，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、Y S Tsui訓練的SEIZE THE SPIRIT勝出，贏出1/2。GALAXY RACER獲得亞軍；WINWIN THIRTYTHREE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.1倍大熱門VICTORIOUS LEADER跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT 後段發力 1.22.26 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 10 | 7.1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | GALAXY RACER 後段發力 B1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 9.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 後段發力 B S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 2 | 6.4 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | RED BRICK FIGHTER B N Callan · D J Hall | N Callan | D J Hall | 3 | 6.5 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | SMILING SUCCESS 早段領放 B/TT K H Chan · K H Ting | K H Chan | K H Ting | 12 | 26.0 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | VICTORIOUS LEADER 後段發力 Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 6 | 3.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | TRIUMPHANT LORD TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 5 | 9.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | SOLAR BILLION B/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 4 | 9.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 14 | ROCKAGE 後段發力 B/H/XB/TT H W Lai · K W Lui | H W Lai | K W Lui | 7 | 130.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | GOOD CHOICE AHEAD B/H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 110.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | IRON BRAVO 後段發力 CP-/B1/TT B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 14 | 155.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | CAPTAIN BOSS SR/TT M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 11 | 23.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 12 | TRIUMPHAL WIN 後段發力 B/TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 8 | 214.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 14 | 4 | FLYING MONKEY TT A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 13 | 52.0 | 12-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT | 23.9% | 4.18 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | VICTORIOUS LEADER | 23.4% | 4.28 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 17.0% | 5.87 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 7.2% | 13.81 | 4 |
| 5 | 13 | TRIUMPHANT LORD | 4.5% | 22.18 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | GALAXY RACER | 4.1% | 24.60 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | GOOD CHOICE AHEAD | 4.0% | 25.21 | 10 |
| 8 | 4 | FLYING MONKEY | 3.9% | 25.40 | 14 |
| 9 | 9 | SOLAR BILLION | 3.3% | 30.49 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | CAPTAIN BOSS | 2.7% | 37.24 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | TRIUMPHAL WIN | 1.8% | 54.40 | 13 |
| 12 | 6 | SMILING SUCCESS | 1.7% | 58.37 | 5 |
| 13 | 7 | IRON BRAVO | 1.4% | 72.32 | 11 |
| 14 | 14 | ROCKAGE | 1.1% | 93.94 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 71
PLACE
3 20
5 33.5
8 25
QUINELLA
5,8 379
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 127.5
3,8 63
5,8 128.5
TIERCE
8,5,3 3,271
TRIO
3,5,8 513
FIRST 4
3,5,8,10 817
QUARTET
8,5,3,10 16,750
2ND DOUBLE
10/5 279.5
10/8 870.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 21.5
A2 —
A3 —