沙田 · 2020-02-08
第 4場
2020-02-08沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、Y S Tsui訓練的FANTASTIC SHOW勝出，贏出2-1/2。ROMAN IMPERO獲得亞軍；KING'S RACE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | FANTASTIC SHOW 後段發力 B1 1.22.07 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 8 | 2.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | ROMAN IMPERO B K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 12 | 46.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | KING'S RACE 後段發力 B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 4 | 3.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | WINSTON'S LAD H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 13.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | XPONENTIAL 後段發力 XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 13 | 9.9 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | SPEED FAY FAY 後段發力 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 7 | 264.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | COMFORT LIFE XB/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 2 | 6.4 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | KING'S TROOPER 後段發力 C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 6 | 21.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | SPONTANEOUS 後段發力 T Piccone · P O'Sullivan | T Piccone | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 17.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | GENERAL CASTLEDALE TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 1 | 262.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN 後段發力 H1 L Hewitson · L Ho | L Hewitson | L Ho | 10 | 176.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | TURF BRILLIANT 後段發力 H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 14 | 136.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 7 | RED ZOFFANY 早段領放 A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 3 | 118.0 | 10 |
| 14 | 13 | DIAMOND LEGEND V/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 5 | 16.0 | 12-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | COMFORT LIFE | 20.9% | 4.79 | 7 |
| 2 | 12 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 17.1% | 5.83 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | KING'S RACE | 15.6% | 6.41 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | XPONENTIAL | 9.5% | 10.57 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | KING'S TROOPER | 8.4% | 11.87 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | SPONTANEOUS | 6.7% | 14.83 | 9 |
| 7 | 13 | DIAMOND LEGEND | 6.7% | 14.86 | 14 |
| 8 | 6 | WINSTON'S LAD | 5.3% | 19.04 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | RED ZOFFANY | 3.9% | 25.94 | 13 |
| 10 | 4 | ROMAN IMPERO | 2.0% | 49.02 | 2 |
| 11 | 14 | TURF BRILLIANT | 1.4% | 72.33 | 12 |
| 12 | 8 | SPEED FAY FAY | 1.3% | 75.77 | 6 |
| 13 | 10 | GENERAL CASTLEDALE | 0.6% | 170.11 | 10 |
| 14 | 11 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN | 0.6% | 178.53 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 25.5
PLACE
3 12.5
4 88
12 14
QUINELLA
4,12 621.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 238.5
3,12 24.5
4,12 180
TIERCE
12,4,3 2,822
TRIO
3,4,12 561
FIRST 4
3,4,6,12 1,073
QUARTET
12,4,3,6 22,260
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,11/3,4,12 8,808
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 18
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
11/4 627
11/12 113