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Sha Tin · 2020-02-08

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-08 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FANTASTIC SHOW, ridden by J Moreira and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 2-1/2, with ROMAN IMPERO second and KING'S RACE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly B1 1.22.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · Y S Tsui 8 2.5 2-1/2
2 4 ROMAN IMPERO B K H Chan · C H Yip 12 46.0 2-1/2
3 3 KING'S RACE Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting 4 3.6 3-3/4
4 6 WINSTON'S LAD H C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 13.0 5
5 5 XPONENTIAL Closed strongly XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 13 9.9 5
6 8 SPEED FAY FAY Closed strongly M L Yeung · T P Yung 7 264.0 5-1/4
7 1 COMFORT LIFE XB/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 2 6.4 5-1/2
8 2 KING'S TROOPER Closed strongly C Schofield · P F Yiu 6 21.0 7
9 9 SPONTANEOUS Closed strongly T Piccone · P O'Sullivan 11 17.0 7-1/2
10 10 GENERAL CASTLEDALE TT N Callan · D E Ferraris 1 262.0 8-3/4
11 11 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN Closed strongly H1 L Hewitson · L Ho 10 176.0 9-1/4
12 14 TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly H W Lai · W Y So 14 136.0 9-1/4
13 7 RED ZOFFANY Led early A Badel · K L Man 3 118.0 10
14 13 DIAMOND LEGEND V/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 5 16.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FANTASTIC SHOW2. ROMAN IMPERO+2.5L3. KING'S RACE+3.75L4. WINSTON'S LAD+5L5. XPONENTIAL+5L6. SPEED FAY FAY+5.25L7. COMFORT LIFE+5.5L8. KING'S TROOPER+7L9. SPONTANEOUS+7.5L10. GENERAL CASTLEDALE+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick COMFORT LIFE (20.9%) finished 7th — the winner FANTASTIC SHOW was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 COMFORT LIFE 20.9% 4.79 7
2 12 FANTASTIC SHOW 17.1% 5.83 1
3 3 KING'S RACE 15.6% 6.41 3
4 5 XPONENTIAL 9.5% 10.57 5
5 2 KING'S TROOPER 8.4% 11.87 8
6 9 SPONTANEOUS 6.7% 14.83 9
7 13 DIAMOND LEGEND 6.7% 14.86 14
8 6 WINSTON'S LAD 5.3% 19.04 4
9 7 RED ZOFFANY 3.9% 25.94 13
10 4 ROMAN IMPERO 2.0% 49.02 2
11 14 TURF BRILLIANT 1.4% 72.33 12
12 8 SPEED FAY FAY 1.3% 75.77 6
13 10 GENERAL CASTLEDALE 0.6% 170.11 10
14 11 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN 0.6% 178.53 11
COMFORT LIFEFANTASTIC SHOW — wonKING'S RACEXPONENTIALKING'S TROOPERSPONTANEOUSDIAMOND LEGENDWINSTON'S LADRED ZOFFANYROMAN IMPEROTURF BRILLIANTSPEED FAY FAYGENERAL CASTLEDALECHUNGHWA JINGSHEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 25.5

PLACE

3 12.5

4 88

12 14

QUINELLA

4,12 621.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 238.5

3,12 24.5

4,12 180

TIERCE

12,4,3 2,822

TRIO

3,4,12 561

FIRST 4

3,4,6,12 1,073

QUARTET

12,4,3,6 22,260

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,11/3,4,12 8,808

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 18

A3

3RD DOUBLE

11/4 627

11/12 113