Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-02-08

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-08 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. LONE EAGLE, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with MR WEALTH second and MEGA HEART third. The 4.0 favourite WINNING METHOD finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.09.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 LONE EAGLE XB-/TT2 1.09.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 36.0 3/4
2 2 MR WEALTH H/P T Piccone · K L Man 10 42.0 3/4
3 4 MEGA HEART XB/TT J Moreira · C W Chang 8 4.1 3/4
4 12 HANDSOME REBEL H- K Teetan · Y S Tsui 6 7.0 1-3/4
5 8 JUST NOT LISTENING CP2 N Callan · J Moore 5 12.0 2-1/4
6 3 COBY OPPA B/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 7 4.6 6-1/2
7 11 HAPPY TIME TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 25.0 7
8 9 THE WEATHERMAN P2 A Badel · D J Whyte 9 125.0 7-3/4
9 5 WINNING METHOD B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum 11 4.0 8
10 6 AQUILA C Schofield · K H Ting 1 6.4 8-1/4
11 7 INFINITY ENDEAVOUR P/TT L Hewitson · J Size 2 43.0 8-3/4
12 10 DIAMOND PEGASUS B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 4 146.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LONE EAGLE2. MR WEALTH+0.75L3. MEGA HEART+0.75L4. HANDSOME REBEL+1.75L5. JUST NOT LISTENING+2.25L6. COBY OPPA+6.5L7. HAPPY TIME+7L8. THE WEATHERMAN+7.75L9. WINNING METHOD+8L10. AQUILA+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick COBY OPPA (19.6%) finished 6th — the winner LONE EAGLE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 COBY OPPA 19.6% 5.09 6
2 1 LONE EAGLE 14.9% 6.70 1
3 5 WINNING METHOD 13.2% 7.59 9
4 4 MEGA HEART 12.3% 8.11 3
5 6 AQUILA 11.6% 8.64 10
6 12 HANDSOME REBEL 6.2% 16.15 4
7 2 MR WEALTH 6.1% 16.48 2
8 8 JUST NOT LISTENING 4.5% 22.25 5
9 7 INFINITY ENDEAVOUR 4.1% 24.42 11
10 11 HAPPY TIME 3.9% 25.92 7
11 10 DIAMOND PEGASUS 1.9% 52.03 12
12 9 THE WEATHERMAN 1.7% 58.03 8
COBY OPPALONE EAGLE — wonWINNING METHODMEGA HEARTAQUILAHANDSOME REBELMR WEALTHJUST NOT LISTENINGINFINITY ENDEAVOURHAPPY TIMEDIAMOND PEGASUSTHE WEATHERMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 365.5

PLACE

1 90

2 89

4 14.5

QUINELLA

1,2 3,755.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 904.5

1,4 205.5

2,4 194

TIERCE

1,2,4 26,755

TRIO

1,2,4 3,339

FIRST 4

1,2,4,12 5,569

QUARTET

1,2,4,12 239,475

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 48.5

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

4/1 2,264

4/2 463.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,4,12/3,4,11/1,2,4 1,233,960

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,4,12/3,4,11/Any Combination 6,367