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Sha Tin · 2020-02-08

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-08 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOLD CHEST, ridden by M F Poon and trained by R Gibson, won by NOSE, with DUKE WAI second and COUNTRY STAR third. The 3.3 favourite DUKE WAI finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 GOLD CHEST CP/TT 1.09.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · R Gibson 10 24.0 NOSE
2 6 DUKE WAI B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 9 3.3 NOSE
3 2 COUNTRY STAR G van Niekerk · J Size 2 51.0 N
4 3 SAUL'S SPECIAL B/H K H Chan · C W Chang 4 242.0 1/2
5 10 COMPUTER PATCH XB/H1 A Badel · J Moore 5 4.2 1/2
6 1 VOYAGE WARRIOR C Schofield · P F Yiu 1 5.3 3/4
7 5 WATER DIVINER B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 9.8 2
8 11 RACING FIGHTER TT H T Mo · C H Yip 11 79.0 2-3/4
9 8 HONG KONG BET TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 7 27.0 5
10 4 STYLING CITY B/TT1 L Hewitson · J Moore 6 152.0 5-3/4
11 9 BEAUTY APPLAUSE TT J Moreira · J Size 12 3.9 7-3/4
12 7 KINGS SHIELD CP K C Leung · F C Lor 3 87.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLD CHEST2. DUKE WAI+0.05L3. COUNTRY STAR+0.05L4. SAUL'S SPECIAL+0.5L5. COMPUTER PATCH+0.5L6. VOYAGE WARRIOR+0.75L7. WATER DIVINER+2L8. RACING FIGHTER+2.75L9. HONG KONG BET+5L10. STYLING CITY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BEAUTY APPLAUSE (21.2%) finished 11th — the winner GOLD CHEST was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 BEAUTY APPLAUSE 21.2% 4.71 11
2 10 COMPUTER PATCH 19.1% 5.24 5
3 1 VOYAGE WARRIOR 16.6% 6.01 6
4 6 DUKE WAI 15.4% 6.48 2
5 7 KINGS SHIELD 9.2% 10.88 12
6 8 HONG KONG BET 4.4% 22.75 9
7 5 WATER DIVINER 3.9% 25.66 7
8 2 COUNTRY STAR 3.6% 27.69 3
9 12 GOLD CHEST 2.6% 38.67 1
10 11 RACING FIGHTER 1.7% 57.28 8
11 4 STYLING CITY 1.3% 79.84 10
12 3 SAUL'S SPECIAL 0.9% 107.61 4
BEAUTY APPLAUSECOMPUTER PATCHVOYAGE WARRIORDUKE WAIKINGS SHIELDHONG KONG BETWATER DIVINERCOUNTRY STARGOLD CHEST — wonRACING FIGHTERSTYLING CITYSAUL'S SPECIAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 249

PLACE

2 91.5

6 15

12 41.5

QUINELLA

6,12 329.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 243.5

2,12 1,030

6,12 85.5

TIERCE

12,6,2 26,659

TRIO

2,6,12 3,493

FIRST 4

2,3,6,12 25,526

QUARTET

12,6,2,3 1,000,184

3 PICK 1

A3 76.5

A2

A1

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

1,7,11/6 10.5

1,7,11/12 596