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Sha Tin · 2020-02-08

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. EXCEL DELIGHT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with DOLLAR REWARD second and CONFUCIUS DAY third. The 4.7 favourite DOLLAR REWARD finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 EXCEL DELIGHT H 1.09.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 7 4.9 1/2
2 3 DOLLAR REWARD P/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 6 4.7 1/2
3 1 CONFUCIUS DAY B-/P2/TT K H Chan · C W Chang 5 6.9 1-3/4
4 9 WAYFOONG CHARMER BO K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 11 6.7 2-1/4
5 8 MOMENTUM HAPPY CP A Badel · T P Yung 1 6.5 4
6 12 PLEASANT GUY K C Leung · L Ho 2 17.0 4
7 4 BULLETPROOF M Chadwick · P F Yiu 10 83.0 6-1/4
8 2 TEAM FORTUNE B/TT T Piccone · W Y So 8 36.0 7
9 5 CHARGE ON H M F Poon · D J Hall 9 17.0 7-1/4
10 7 GOLDEN EFFORT B H N Wong · D E Ferraris 3 50.0 10-1/4
11 6 BRIGHT KID B-/XB-/P1 G van Niekerk · D J Whyte 4 5.8 10-1/2
12 10 JOY AVENUE P1/XB1 L Hewitson · C H Yip 12 121.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EXCEL DELIGHT2. DOLLAR REWARD+0.5L3. CONFUCIUS DAY+1.75L4. WAYFOONG CHARMER+2.25L5. MOMENTUM HAPPY+4L6. PLEASANT GUY+4L7. BULLETPROOF+6.25L8. TEAM FORTUNE+7L9. CHARGE ON+7.25L10. GOLDEN EFFORT+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick EXCEL DELIGHT (16.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 EXCEL DELIGHT 16.4% 6.11 1
2 6 BRIGHT KID 16.1% 6.23 11
3 1 CONFUCIUS DAY 13.9% 7.21 3
4 8 MOMENTUM HAPPY 13.0% 7.67 5
5 3 DOLLAR REWARD 11.0% 9.06 2
6 5 CHARGE ON 8.6% 11.60 9
7 4 BULLETPROOF 6.3% 15.76 7
8 9 WAYFOONG CHARMER 5.6% 17.75 4
9 2 TEAM FORTUNE 4.4% 22.92 8
10 12 PLEASANT GUY 1.9% 52.30 6
11 7 GOLDEN EFFORT 1.5% 65.79 10
12 10 JOY AVENUE 1.2% 80.84 12
EXCEL DELIGHT — wonBRIGHT KIDCONFUCIUS DAYMOMENTUM HAPPYDOLLAR REWARDCHARGE ONBULLETPROOFWAYFOONG CHARMERTEAM FORTUNEPLEASANT GUYGOLDEN EFFORTJOY AVENUE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 49

PLACE

1 19.5

3 16

11 17

QUINELLA

3,11 114

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 46

1,11 59

3,11 42.5

TIERCE

11,3,1 792

TRIO

1,3,11 160

FIRST 4

1,3,9,11 210

QUARTET

11,3,1,9 4,216

2ND DOUBLE

7/3 71.5

7/11 333.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 24

A3