Sha Tin · 2020-02-08
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. EXCEL DELIGHT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with DOLLAR REWARD second and CONFUCIUS DAY third. The 4.7 favourite DOLLAR REWARD finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | EXCEL DELIGHT H 1.09.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 4.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | DOLLAR REWARD P/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 6 | 4.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | CONFUCIUS DAY B-/P2/TT K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 5 | 6.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | WAYFOONG CHARMER BO K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 6.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | MOMENTUM HAPPY CP A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 1 | 6.5 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | PLEASANT GUY K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 2 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | BULLETPROOF M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 10 | 83.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | TEAM FORTUNE B/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 8 | 36.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 5 | CHARGE ON H M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 9 | 17.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | GOLDEN EFFORT B H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 3 | 50.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | BRIGHT KID B-/XB-/P1 G van Niekerk · D J Whyte | G van Niekerk | D J Whyte | 4 | 5.8 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | JOY AVENUE P1/XB1 L Hewitson · C H Yip | L Hewitson | C H Yip | 12 | 121.0 | 12 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | EXCEL DELIGHT | 16.4% | 6.11 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | BRIGHT KID | 16.1% | 6.23 | 11 |
| 3 | 1 | CONFUCIUS DAY | 13.9% | 7.21 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | MOMENTUM HAPPY | 13.0% | 7.67 | 5 |
| 5 | 3 | DOLLAR REWARD | 11.0% | 9.06 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | CHARGE ON | 8.6% | 11.60 | 9 |
| 7 | 4 | BULLETPROOF | 6.3% | 15.76 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | WAYFOONG CHARMER | 5.6% | 17.75 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | TEAM FORTUNE | 4.4% | 22.92 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | PLEASANT GUY | 1.9% | 52.30 | 6 |
| 11 | 7 | GOLDEN EFFORT | 1.5% | 65.79 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | JOY AVENUE | 1.2% | 80.84 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 49
PLACE
1 19.5
3 16
11 17
QUINELLA
3,11 114
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 46
1,11 59
3,11 42.5
TIERCE
11,3,1 792
TRIO
1,3,11 160
FIRST 4
1,3,9,11 210
QUARTET
11,3,1,9 4,216
2ND DOUBLE
7/3 71.5
7/11 333.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 24
A3 —