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Sha Tin · 2020-02-08

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-08 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. EL JEFE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 3/4, with ZERO HEDGE second and DUBLIN STAR third. The 1.9 favourite DUBLIN STAR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.57.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 EL JEFE B-/XB1/TT 0.57.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip 13 8.8 3/4
2 3 ZERO HEDGE PC/XB M Chadwick · J Size 4 21.0 3/4
3 6 DUBLIN STAR H-/B1 J Moreira · K L Man 12 1.9 1-1/2
4 14 HERE COMES TED B H N Wong · D E Ferraris 1 32.0 2
5 7 FIGHTER BOY G van Niekerk · P F Yiu 11 15.0 2
6 1 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H/V N Callan · L Ho 10 33.0 2-1/4
7 8 QIPAO BOSS M F Poon · D J Hall 9 22.0 3-1/2
8 11 STOCK LEGEND B1 A Badel · K H Ting 5 111.0 4-3/4
9 2 HAPPY VICTORY M L Yeung · T P Yung 3 30.0 5-3/4
10 10 SPICY GRILL C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 101.0 7-1/4
11 9 SMART WONGCHOY XB1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 7 3.5 8-1/2
12 13 AIOLOS H-/TT K C Leung · W Y So 14 91.0 10-1/2
13 5 BRAVE BABY B/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 2 96.0 13-1/4
14 4 ALL THE WAY B1 L Hewitson · A T Millard 6 62.0 13-1/2
0 TRUST ME · C H Yip

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EL JEFE2. ZERO HEDGE+0.75L3. DUBLIN STAR+1.5L4. HERE COMES TED+2L5. FIGHTER BOY+2L6. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE+2.25L7. QIPAO BOSS+3.5L8. STOCK LEGEND+4.75L9. HAPPY VICTORY+5.75L10. SPICY GRILL+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DUBLIN STAR (22.2%) finished 3rd — the winner EL JEFE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 DUBLIN STAR 22.2% 4.50 3
2 12 EL JEFE 13.1% 7.61 1
3 9 SMART WONGCHOY 11.9% 8.41 11
4 7 FIGHTER BOY 11.0% 9.13 5
5 11 STOCK LEGEND 8.1% 12.31 8
6 3 ZERO HEDGE 7.9% 12.72 2
7 10 SPICY GRILL 5.9% 16.88 10
8 2 HAPPY VICTORY 5.2% 19.28 9
9 5 BRAVE BABY 3.9% 25.78 13
10 1 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE 3.4% 29.63 6
11 8 QIPAO BOSS 3.3% 30.63 7
12 4 ALL THE WAY 1.5% 67.41 14
13 13 AIOLOS 1.4% 70.07 12
14 14 HERE COMES TED 1.3% 77.46 4
DUBLIN STAREL JEFE — wonSMART WONGCHOYFIGHTER BOYSTOCK LEGENDZERO HEDGESPICY GRILLHAPPY VICTORYBRAVE BABYSUMSTREETSUMWHEREQIPAO BOSSALL THE WAYAIOLOSHERE COMES TED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 88

PLACE

3 38.5

6 15

12 17

QUINELLA

3,12 536

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 68.5

3,12 142.5

6,12 24

TIERCE

12,3,6 2,873

TRIO

3,6,12 257

FIRST 4

3,6,12,14 726

QUARTET

12,3,6,14 26,779

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 48.5

A1