沙田 · 2020-02-23
第 1場
2020-02-23沙田第1場，Class 5，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、K L Man訓練的ALL BEST FRIENDS勝出，贏出4。GENERAL TRUMP獲得亞軍；JIMSON THE DRAGON獲得季軍。頭馬以2.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ALL BEST FRIENDS B 1.09.24 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 2 | 2.8 | 4 |
| 2 | 2 | GENERAL TRUMP TT A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 10 | 5.7 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | JIMSON THE DRAGON B/XB/TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 1 | 16.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | MONEYMORE K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 11 | 6.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | BIG BULLY B/TT1 N Callan · D J Hall | N Callan | D J Hall | 7 | 22.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | SPICY REALLY H-/B J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 4 | 7.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | FAIRY FLOSS P-/H/B2 M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 3 | 63.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P R Moore · J Size | R Moore | J Size | 9 | 18.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 10 | FOX CHEUNGER B/TT M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 14 | 24.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | GOOD CHOICE AHEAD B/H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 6 | 115.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 14 | KEEP GOING CP1 C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 8 | 40.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 13 | CAPTAIN BOSS SR/B2/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 12 | 73.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 12 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY CP-/B2/H2 C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 13 | 7.5 | 7-3/4 |
| 14 | 1 | FLYING EMPEROR B2 H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 5 | 219.0 | 35 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SPICY REALLY | 29.1% | 3.43 | 6 |
| 2 | 2 | GENERAL TRUMP | 15.4% | 6.50 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 14.8% | 6.74 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE | 7.6% | 13.21 | 8 |
| 5 | 10 | FOX CHEUNGER | 6.7% | 15.01 | 9 |
| 6 | 8 | BIG BULLY | 4.3% | 23.06 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY | 3.9% | 25.45 | 13 |
| 8 | 5 | MONEYMORE | 3.9% | 25.50 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | FAIRY FLOSS | 3.1% | 32.06 | 7 |
| 10 | 14 | KEEP GOING | 3.1% | 32.61 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | GOOD CHOICE AHEAD | 3.1% | 32.69 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | JIMSON THE DRAGON | 2.9% | 34.39 | 3 |
| 13 | 13 | CAPTAIN BOSS | 1.6% | 64.09 | 12 |
| 14 | 1 | FLYING EMPEROR | 0.5% | 196.14 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 28
PLACE
2 17.5
3 13
11 43
QUINELLA
2,3 82.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 35
2,11 120.5
3,11 77.5
TIERCE
3,2,11 1,387
TRIO
2,3,11 382
FIRST 4
2,3,5,11 683
QUARTET
3,2,11,5 9,561
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 20.5