沙田 · 2020-02-23
第 4場
2020-02-23沙田第4場，Class 4，途程2000米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、D J Hall訓練的LONDON HALL勝出，贏出1。ABOVE獲得亞軍；HAPPY ROCKY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.4倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LONDON HALL 後段發力 B 2.02.54 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 1 | 2.4 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | ABOVE 後段發力 B H Bowman · J Moore | H Bowman | J Moore | 6 | 4.8 | 1 |
| 3 | 13 | HAPPY ROCKY 後段發力 B/TT G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 8 | 43.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | CROWN AVENUE V B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 11 | 86.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | CHEERFUL STAR 後段發力 CP/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 12 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 14 | SHINEALOT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS 早段領放 B Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 14 | 7.2 | 5 |
| 8 | 12 | GOOD DAYS 後段發力 B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 13 | 32.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | EXALTATION B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 3 | 79.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | DRAGON COMMANDER N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 10 | 41.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | DEFINING MOMENT 後段發力 H T Mo · C Fownes | H T Mo | C Fownes | 4 | 8.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | KING'S MAN 後段發力 V M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 5 | 43.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 10 | BULLISH GLORY H C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 7 | 31.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 14 | 6 | YOU HAVE MY WORD B- M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 2 | 108.0 | 11 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LONDON HALL | 35.7% | 2.80 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS | 12.7% | 7.85 | 7 |
| 3 | 8 | ABOVE | 12.6% | 7.96 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | CHEERFUL STAR | 10.3% | 9.74 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | DEFINING MOMENT | 4.8% | 20.98 | 11 |
| 6 | 4 | KING'S MAN | 4.5% | 22.22 | 12 |
| 7 | 10 | BULLISH GLORY | 4.2% | 23.83 | 13 |
| 8 | 14 | SHINEALOT | 4.2% | 24.07 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 3.4% | 29.39 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | EXALTATION | 2.1% | 48.17 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | GOOD DAYS | 2.0% | 51.06 | 8 |
| 12 | 1 | CROWN AVENUE | 1.4% | 70.68 | 4 |
| 13 | 13 | HAPPY ROCKY | 1.2% | 82.41 | 3 |
| 14 | 6 | YOU HAVE MY WORD | 1.1% | 94.01 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 24.5
PLACE
5 15.5
8 15
13 101
QUINELLA
5,8 62.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 28
5,13 165
8,13 268
TIERCE
5,8,13 2,036
TRIO
5,8,13 615
FIRST 4
1,5,8,13 5,235
QUARTET
5,8,13,1 48,484
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
11,12,14/5,8,13 71,553
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16.5
3RD DOUBLE
14/5 57
14/8 18.5