Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-02-23

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 2000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-23 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. LONDON HALL, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D J Hall, won by 1, with ABOVE second and HAPPY ROCKY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.02.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 LONDON HALL Closed strongly B 2.02.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D J Hall 1 2.4 1
2 8 ABOVE Closed strongly B H Bowman · J Moore 6 4.8 1
3 13 HAPPY ROCKY Closed strongly B/TT G van Niekerk · C W Chang 8 43.0 1-3/4
4 1 CROWN AVENUE V B Shinn · C H Yip 11 86.0 3-3/4
5 9 CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 12 13.0 4
6 14 SHINEALOT K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 9 10.0 5
7 11 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Led early B Z Purton · C H Yip 14 7.2 5
8 12 GOOD DAYS Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 13 32.0 5
9 7 EXALTATION B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 79.0 5-1/4
10 3 DRAGON COMMANDER N Callan · D E Ferraris 10 41.0 5-3/4
11 2 DEFINING MOMENT Closed strongly H T Mo · C Fownes 4 8.0 6-1/4
12 4 KING'S MAN Closed strongly V M F Poon · P F Yiu 5 43.0 6-1/2
13 10 BULLISH GLORY H C Schofield · C W Chang 7 31.0 7-1/4
14 6 YOU HAVE MY WORD B- M L Yeung · T P Yung 2 108.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LONDON HALL2. ABOVE+1L3. HAPPY ROCKY+1.75L4. CROWN AVENUE+3.75L5. CHEERFUL STAR+4L6. SHINEALOT+5L7. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+5L8. GOOD DAYS+5L9. EXALTATION+5.25L10. DRAGON COMMANDER+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick LONDON HALL (35.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 LONDON HALL 35.7% 2.80 1
2 11 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 12.7% 7.85 7
3 8 ABOVE 12.6% 7.96 2
4 9 CHEERFUL STAR 10.3% 9.74 5
5 2 DEFINING MOMENT 4.8% 20.98 11
6 4 KING'S MAN 4.5% 22.22 12
7 10 BULLISH GLORY 4.2% 23.83 13
8 14 SHINEALOT 4.2% 24.07 6
9 3 DRAGON COMMANDER 3.4% 29.39 10
10 7 EXALTATION 2.1% 48.17 9
11 12 GOOD DAYS 2.0% 51.06 8
12 1 CROWN AVENUE 1.4% 70.68 4
13 13 HAPPY ROCKY 1.2% 82.41 3
14 6 YOU HAVE MY WORD 1.1% 94.01 14
LONDON HALL — wonMURRAY'S PARTNERSABOVECHEERFUL STARDEFINING MOMENTKING'S MANBULLISH GLORYSHINEALOTDRAGON COMMANDEREXALTATIONGOOD DAYSCROWN AVENUEHAPPY ROCKYYOU HAVE MY WORD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 24.5

PLACE

5 15.5

8 15

13 101

QUINELLA

5,8 62.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 28

5,13 165

8,13 268

TIERCE

5,8,13 2,036

TRIO

5,8,13 615

FIRST 4

1,5,8,13 5,235

QUARTET

5,8,13,1 48,484

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

11,12,14/5,8,13 71,553

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 16.5

3RD DOUBLE

14/5 57

14/8 18.5